NBC 40 First Look AccuWeather

2004 .....A Lesson Learned

2006-11-11T21:40:00.000-08:00

I would like to share with you one of the most memorable forecasting experiences in my life up to this point. It's what really changed the way that I forecast the weather today. It showed me that the weather isn't always all about computer models. It's about judgement and instincts as well. It's about knowing the territory that your forecasting. It's about not only reading the ink on the page, but reading in between the lines as well. Because the bottom line is quite simple.... you can be the most intelligent meteorologist in the country. You can know these computer models inside and out like the back of your hand. Know their strengths, their weaknesses, their biasis. But the fact is, sometimes "Mother Nature" is going to do what she's going to do and that's just the way it is.

As I'm sure you all already know, weather is not an exact science. Forecasting it can become very tricky and difficult sometimes. Changes in timing, precipitation amounts, wind directions, etc. seems to happen all the time from run to run on the computer models. So knowledge of how forecast models handle certain situations obviously plays a huge role in creating a forecast. But sometimes even that knowledge isn't enough and that's when instincts and judgement takes over. Not being afraid to make a call in a close situation when the National Weather Service is. Not backing down on a forecast just because another weather source did or vice versa. It's the ability to recognize the overall pattern and not change the forecast from model run to model run. That's when a forecaster is at his/her best.

One thing that I've learned in this field is that everyone makes mistakes. I've worked along side of some of the best forecasters in the country from Accuweather to the National Weather Service. Even those guys make mistakes from time to time! But it's the forecaster who isn't afraid to make that mistake and learns from it who benefits the most. I specifically remember forecasting an east coast snowstorm back in the winter of 2004. I was in my fourth year working for the local abc affiliate in Philadelphia, 6abc Action News. We were backed by powerhouse Accuweather and perhaps some of the strongest Meteorologists in the country in Bernie Rayno, Dave Dombeck and Joe Bastardi.

Perhaps one of the biggest lessons I've ever learned in this field began to unfold right before my eyes. A lesson that has stuck with me ever since. This was a lesson about instincts and judgement. In school they teach you all about math and science in this field. You learn how to recognize certain synoptic weather patterns. You learn all about this wonderful science that we call Meteorology. But until you actually get your feet wet with hands on experience....you will never truely be ready. Back in 2004 a situation developed that had baffled even the very best forecasters in this business. There were four specific forecast models that everyone was paying close attention to when we first began to talk about the possibility of a major east coast storm. Three of them were predicting snow changing to rain while the other one was going with an all out full blown snowstorm. Accuweather and the National Weather Service decided to go with the numbers game (3 to 1) and played up a snow changing to rain event with just a couple of inches accumulating before the changeover. For several days that was the thinking, not only at 6abc but across the board from station to station as well. What made this almost a guarantee was the fact that the forecast model that was hinting towards the snowstorm was the NOGAPS. The NOGAPS does a lousy job in the winter because it has a few bad biases and isn't as highly regarded as some of the other forecast models. So this almost seemed like a no-brainer and no one was really concerned at the time. But ohhh did things ever begin to change. All of the sudden the other three forecast models started getting colder and colder with every passing model run. All of the sudden the other forecast models began shifting the low further and further east. All of the sudden all of the other forecast models began to come around to what the NOGAPS was thinking. Then, just 12 hours out from the start of the event the unthinkable happened.....those other three forecast models suddenly did a complete 180 and identified the overall patten that the NOGAPS saw all along. Sure enough 12.5 inches of snow fell on the city of Philadelphia the next day. But by then it was too late. Snow shovels weren't bought, rock salt wasn't bought, every local news agency including the Weather Service got it wrong. Sure, they changed it last minute like your suppose to do but by then it was way too late. Everyone bombed that forecast. Everyone except for one forecaster. That one forecaster was Rob Guarino, chief meteorologist for Fox 29 in Philadelphia. Yes, he was my competition at the time but he was also one of my best friends.

We were on the phone for three nights straight until 2 or 3 in the morning looking at the latest computer model (GFS, NAM) information. I'll never forget what he said to me. About two and a half days out, after about twenty minutes of looking at the upper levels of the GFS and Canadian (longer range forecast models) something finally clicked in his head. He said to me that this was an all out snowstorm. "Look at the overall pattern" he said. "The highs to the north and to the east....the trough digging in the west." He explained to me how that trough to the west would steer the low up the coast. Far enough off the coast to keep us in the cold sector throughout the duration of the storm and we would get all snow event here in Philadelphia. I immediately noticed what he was looking at but was hesitant because of how everyone else was handling this storm and still calling for a changeover to rain. There's nothing more stressful than having to make a call that affects over four million people in your viewing area. I took a risk though and began adjusting my forecast as well. I mentioned that there would now be a longer duration of snow than first anticipated which would create higher snowfall totals. But Rob kept telling me that there wouldn't even be a changeover to rain at all. "This is an all out snowstorm" he said. In the end.....he ended up nailing it!!

It was right there that I realized that there is so much more to this science then looking at these forecast models. I would have never of realized what Rob saw. Sure I saw the same thing that he was looking at. But he did something that I could have never of done at that time. He based his call on how other previous east coast storms had reacted to the same kind of pattern that we saw developing that night. Something that I couldn't see. We're talking about experience on his part. But more importantly we're talking about instincts. Almost every forecast model and every television station in the Philadelphia market went against his call with that storm. But it never slowed him down one bit. Your INSTINCTS are what will seperate you from the rest of the pack in this field. It seperates the best of the best.

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I share this experience with you (above) because the same thing will soon apply here in Bowling Green as well. Now that we're entering our second severe weather season of the year forecasting promises to become very challenging over the next several months. It will linger right into the winter as well when we start to talk about that four letter word....SNOW. There will be times of confusion and stress....forecast models will disagree with each other.....and other weather sources will go against my call. But I will not only rely on my knowledge and skills. I will also rely on my judgement and instincts.

The challenges have already started for me as we progress through the month of November.
I specifically remember a rain storm that hit about two weeks ago on a Friday Night. Several days before hand I had talked about how some parts of the viewing area would see heavy rains and strong gusty winds. I mentioned the fact that flooding could become a concern at some point as well and that we would have to monitor this very carefully. Other local sources just laughed and blew it off as they went along with their forecast because the National Weather Service wasn't mentioning flooding. "Flooding will not be an issue with this one!" they said. Sure enough a flash flood watch was issued that morning for the western counties in our viewing area because they had picked up 2 to 4 inches of rain in a very short period of time. Then later that night when the upper level low pulled through we had wind gusts between 35 and 38 mph.

I also can recall ealier this week when I talked about how a dense fog advisory may be needed because of how low visibilities were going to be in some locations. A lot of low level moisture had been leftover in the wake of a stubburn upper level low pressure system that brought for a very miserable beginning of the week. Once again other local sources never even hinted towards it. "You may have to contend with just a little bit of fog overnight" they said. Sure enough later that evening the National Weather Service went ahead and issued a Dense Fog Advisory because visibilities had been reduced to less than a quarter of a mile.

I use my judgement and instincts with every forecast I make. I don't need the National Weather Service to tell me what will and what won't happen like others do. If I make a mistake than I go down.....like a man, captain of this ship. I'll make no excuses. But to my critics I ask you...if your going to criticise me make sure the weather event has already happened or not happened first. If I get it wrong, then criticise me. But don't tell me I'm wrong before it even happens. Because all your doing then is making yourself look foolish. I will continue working hard for you. Around the clock sometimes if I have to, making sure you and yours stay safe and one step ahead of the game.

Let me take this quick second and say thank you for some of the very nice emails that I have received. They make it even that much more special knowing that I can help you plan your day.

Miserable End Of The Week!!

2006-10-24T17:15:00.000-07:00

Forecast models continue to hint towards a very miserable end of the work week here in Bowling Green and most of Southcentral Kentucky.

One to two inches of rain possible.....gusty winds......

We're watching a rather complex storm system developing to our west in the eastern four corner states this evening. Not one, not two, but three key elements are going to come into play in the development of this potential soaker.

First.....A large, digging trough of low pressure diving southeast out of the Pacific Northwest. This will provide the upper level support.

Second.....Energy from Hurricane Paul in the Pacific Ocean will spill across the mountains of Mexico and into Texas.

Third.....Ample moisture will be drawn northward from the Gulf Of Mexico.

As the Pacific trough continues to dig southward it will merge with some of the energy from Hurricane Paul in the Pacific Ocean. This will lead to the development of an area of low pressure in the heart land of the country. This low pressure system will then move very slowly across the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. As it does so....it will become increasingly more windy with periods of rain developing by daybreak Thursday morning. Through the day conditions will continue to deteorate. The periods of rain will become heavy at times with thunderstorms possible by afternoon. Although widespread severe weather is not anticipated at this time the wind field that will be setting up will allow for gusty winds (possibly reaching 40 mph at times).
On and off periods of rain continues through Thursday Night and into the first part of Friday as well. Hopefully we'll begin to clear things out overnight Friday but as I mentioned earlier this is a very slow moving storm system. It turns colder on Saturday with temperatures more than likely only topping out in the low 50's.

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FORECAST MODELS

NAM (North Atlantic Mesoscale)

The Nam prints out 1.15 inches of rain by Friday Night. Coming in waves, the heaviest rains according to this model move through the area first thing Thursday afternoon and then again Thursday Night.

The severe weather parameters look marginally severe at this point with a very weak cape... < 20 j/kg and a lifted index of -1.5. But the sweat index and the 0-3 km helicity values continue to concern me as strong sheering looks like it wants to develop during the day Thursday.

Sweat Index ........ 339.0
0-3 k Helicity ...... 503.5 j/kg

With all other severe weather parameters in place thunderstorms turn severe once the sweat index reaches 300. But as mentioned earlier, the other severe weather parameters are not quite all in place to support widespread severe thunderstorms Thursday. Enter a very high 0-3 km helicity value into the picture. The 0-3 km Helicity is a very good indicator of sheering within the atmosphere. This sheering usually become very strong when a value of 350 j/kg is reached. The NAM shows helicity numbers spiking over 500 right now. So this throws a big curveball at me right now.
The main reason for the curve is because this model, although showing only marginally severe parameters, is hinting towards strong gusty winds to develop sometime by late Thursday afternoon. This would potentially create some problems. There are a lot of leaves still on the trees right now. As these gusty winds blow through the trees the leaves will act as a canope and catch the winds. The heavy rains will produce a soft soil so gusty winds could bring numerous trees down by Friday Morning if this scenario does in fact pan out.

GFS (Global Forecast System)

This model agrees with the NAM and prints out about 1.15 - 1.25 inches of rain to Bowling Green with isolated higher amounts by Friday Morning. Also coming in waves according to this model, the heaviest looks to move in Thursday Night through Friday Morning. The GFS does not play up the winds though and the lifted index within the duration of this storm stays positive.

So there are a few disagreements within the forecast models at this time. But I will tell you this, I do like the wind scenario. So with that said we will have to continue to watch the models very carefully. I will update again Wednesday Evening.

That Time Of Year Again

2006-09-26T12:45:00.000-07:00

As the angle of the sun becomes lower and lower and the days become shorter and shorter the transition from summer to autumn continues across the United States. Very hot and humid days have faded and sharply cooler and drier nights now become the bigger story. The leaves begin to change colors.....shades of green are now replaced with brillant reds and yellows. Pumpkins become a familliar sight and believe it or not the holidays are actually right around the corner!

But with all of that said we now also move into our second severe weather season of the year as well. This time of the year is often times over-looked when we talk about severe weather mainly because it is natural to think of Spring-time storms as being more intense. The months of April, May and June are by far the most thought up of months when we talk about tornadoes and damaging winds and for good reason. Nearly 60% of all severe weather takes place during those months. But a second spike of severe weather also occurs during the autumn months of October and November. This is when we deal with tremendous clashing of air masses between the cool, dry air to the north and the warm and humid air to the south. You throw in a raging jetstream aloft pusing along a cold front and you have the perfect recipe for severe weather.....and plenty of it.

Last year Bowling Green and the entire state of Kentucky encountered not one but two tornado outbreaks. One of which destroyed the tennis courts and part of the roof at Total Fitness Connection on Three Springs Blvd. Several tornadoes touched down that day including one in Barren County which also created some damage. Numerous microbursts developed as well pushing 80 mph straight line winds across a few of our counties and very deadly and damaging cloud to ground lightning was an issue as well.

This is the kind of weather that can develop this time of the year and last weekend was a perfect example. For the first time in several months we dealt with a severe weather "Event" that swept through the upper midwest eastward and into the Northeast. This included the Ohio and Tennessee Valley's. Because of the way the winds were oriented aloft (southwest - northeast) a ton of moisture moved northward out of the Gulf Of Mexico and into this massive storm system. This really destabilized the atmosphere quickly. Cape values were well over 2000 j/kg with lifted indicies between -3 and -5. Signs then began to point towards rotation as well and as a result several tornado warning were issued by The National Weather Service when these storms pulled through. We were fortunate though and no tornadoes or funnel clouds developed in our viewing area. But what did develop was deadly flash flooding throughout the entire state of Kentucky. Seven people lost there lives in the Bluegrass State this past weekend making it the deadliest weather event since 1997 when a tornado outbreak killed over 20 people. Some locations recieved more than 10 inches of rain as creeks and streams turned into raging rivers. Now typically the beginning of October is quiet but by the end of the month and into November things begin to really pick up. So the millions dollar question is will what we just saw this past weekend continue through November? Maybe and maybe not. But ones things for sure.... we can not let our guard down, even for a second until that transition into Winter is complete.

Tropics Going Crazy

2006-09-12T21:33:00.000-07:00

How ironic is it that just as every one was ready to throw in the towel with this years tropical season we suddenly have an explosion with five named storms within the past couple of weeks.

Honestly though, this shouldn't come to a surprise to anyone. This is exactly why I continued to mention that even though the tropics had been very quiet up until now there was still a long ways to go before we could pack it in. We are only now within the past couple of weeks moving into the height (peak) of the tropical season. With conditions becoming increasingly more and more favorable for development this kind of activity looks to continue right through October. The very best forecasters in the world don't just throw numbers out there to try to scare us as some who call themselves "weather specialists" would like you to believe. Their predictions are based on and supported by scientific and climatalogical data. This includes hemispherical and global patterns, El Nino (ENSO) cycles and oceanic data. Dr. William Gray and the National Hurricane Center have dropped there forecasted hurricane numbers down slightly thanks to a very quiet July and beginning of August. But they are both still predicting an above normal year and with the tropics going crazy right now the rest of September and October could be very, VERY interesting.

My tropical outlook blog that I had written back in the Spring agreed with both Dr. William Gray and the Nationl Hurricane Center. I saw no reason what so ever to go against either one of them. Especially coming on the heels of what was the busiest and most destructive hurricane season every in history (2005). But last month I pulled that blog from the archives. Not because I was afraid it was inaccurate but because I said a few things about a few weather forecasters that I found inappropriate. Lets face it, in this profession your going to make mistakes. That's just the way this game is. The very best forecasters in the world make mistakes. But I felt that as a professional I should keep things professional and not retaliate to those that take shots at me. I didn't become a meteorologist to try to prove someone else wrong. I became a meteorologist to give you the very best forecast possible so that you can plan your day. With that said lets move on.....

As of this writing (September 12th) there were three tropical systems out in the Atlantic. Hurricane Florence, which struck the 22 mile long island of Bermuda. Newly formed Hurricane Gordon and Tropical Depression #8. Florence is in the process of becoming extra-tropical and is moving away from the Canadian Maratimes and is now only a concern to shipping interests out in the Atlantic. Hurricane Gordon, located 550 miles north of the Leeward Islands is becoming better organized and continues to strengthen. A very compact storm system, Gordon looks to continue to move to the north and eventually north east and well away from the island of Bermuda also becoming a concern for mainly shipping interests out in the Atlantic. Tropical Depression #8 is thousands of miles out in the Atlantic just now coming off the coast of Africa. This system is enormous and is probably close to double the size of Florence, and we all know how large of a system Florence was. It is this system that we have to monitor very carefully. This is called a Cape Verde Storm. These are typically the most dangerous.

Cape Verde Storms.......the main reason why these storms become so dangerous is because they have thousands of miles of open real estate to travel across and get there acts together. The good news is that your typical Cape Verde Storm eventually turns out to sea and misses the United States mainland nearly 85% of the time. However, with that said some of the biggest Hurricanes in recorded history are the Cape Verde Storms that have not turned north and did infact strike the United States. These storms include Hurricane Hugo and Hurricane Ivan. It is late in the tropical season when these storms begin to develop. So not only does our attention at this point turn to the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea but the deep Atlantic as well.

Yes, there have been a lot of things that have hurt the devlopment of tropical systems so far this summer inlcuding the main reason......wind shear. But conditions, as mentioned earlier are becoming increasingly more favorable now. With that said lets hope that the United States does not take a direct hit this year. I mean hey, there could be as many as thirty named storms during a tropical season or as little as two. But it only takes one to hit! Lets hope we don't see that this year.

Dewpoint Vs. Comfort

2006-07-26T18:36:00.000-07:00

I'm sure that you've noticed over the past couple of week I've removed humidity from my forecast and replaced it with dewpoint temperature. Many nights I then follow that up with a Dewpoint vs. Comfort graphic explaining the comfort level or how it feels outside at that particular time. So with that said lets get into a little more detail on exactly what the Dewpoint is, and why it's a better indicator than humidity when determining how much moisture is in the atmosphere.

First lets take a look at definitions because this is where some of the confusion begins to develop. That coupled with the fact that we've been brought up constantly reading about and/or mentioning humidity but never paying much attention to the dewpoint.

DEFINITION.....
Humidity.......a moderate degree of wetness especially of the atmosphere. (Merriam-Webster Online Dictionary)

Often times when we talk about how it feels outdoors we often mention it being humid or pleasant outside. If you were to look at this definition for humidity it's a wonder why. But have you ever noticed a lot of times in the summer it may feel like a steam bath outdoors but yet when the humidity pops up on your tv screen it may only be a number in the 30's or 40's. Well, that doesn't look very humid at all! Why is this?

DEFINITION....
Dewpoint......the temperature at which air must be cooled at constant pressure in order for it to become saturated with respect to a plane surface of water.

Sounds like your back in chemistry doesn't it!? Simply put, the dewpoint is the temperature at which the air must be cooled for it to become saturated. Okay! That's great but I'm still lost you say! Alright sit down and hold on tight because we're about to go on a quick crash course ride to explain all of this.

The atmosphere works as such ..... as the temperature rises so does the atmosphere's capacity to hold moisture. Therefore, as the temperature rises the humidity actually decreases because of this rising capacity level, giving a false sense of just exactly how uncomfortable/comfortable it really feels outdoors. That's why it may be 94 degrees outside and feel just downright awful but yet the humidity is showing a very low number of only 37%. But it feels absolutely stifling outside, so what's going on you ask!? This is where the dewpoint temperature comes into play. The dewpoint is a constant and does not change with any other variable...... i.e. temperature, pressure, etc. Depending on just how close together or far apart the dewpoint and temperature actually are determines how humid it is. So when determining whether or not it's muggy or not outside we use the dewpoint.

To make things easier for you at home we here at NBC40 have developed a chart for you to follow that we call "Dewpoint Vs. Comfort"

DEWPOINT HOW IT FEELS

under 50 very dry

50 -59 comfortable

60-64 slightly humid

65-69 humid

70-74 oppressive

75+ awful

Midwest radars quickly lighting up now!! 5/24/06

2006-05-24T17:45:00.000-07:00

TWO ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER?

Upper midwest getting hammered with heavy thunderstorms.......numerous severe thunderstorm and tornado watches and warning in effect.

Large hail......damaging gusty winds......torrential rains......dangerous cloud to ground lightning strikes and isolated tornadoes all possible....

Everything looking on cue here as we get set for another round of potentially dangerous thunderstorms in Southcentral Kentucky. Heavy activity continues to light up the night sky across portions of Missouri, Illinois and Indiana. Most, if not all of this action will pass us by to the north tonight. But it's the backend of this activity that has now started to fire up across portions of Arkansas that may move in here after midnight. With the warm front in the process of pushing through we will quickly move into the warm sector of this storm system that is currently spinning it's wheels in the Dakota's. Very warm and humid....oppressively humid air continues to pour into the region continuing to destabilize the atmosphere. Cape values are spiking to almost 3,000 j/kg with dewpoints rising through the mid to upper 60 by tomorrow morning. This will be the fuel that's needed to produce severe weather.

TWO PART STORM SYSTEM GETTING READY TO AFFECT THE AREA.

With the surface low well up to the north through the Great Lakes States most of the triple point action will occurr well to our north. This is where the greatest shearing will occurr. This is also where the greatest tornado threat lies as well. We'll be dealing with a two part storm system. The first round will be associated with the warm front that is in the process of pushing through now......the second round will be with the cold front that will swing through Thursday evening. First lets deal with the warm front........partly cloudy skies overnight tonight will gradually give way to scattered thunderstorms after midnight. Any one of these storms tonight has the ability of producing strong gusty to perhaps damaging winds with hail and dangerous cloud to ground lightning. The heaviest weather tonight should stay to our west across portions of extreme western Kentucky, western Tennessee, Illinois and Indiana. This is the bullseye zone for tonight's weather. Bowling Green lies very close to this area though so we should expect to see a few strong to severe thunderstorms here as well.

WE CATCH A BREAK EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON

Once that warm front has pushed all the way through clouds should break for some sunshine around here by late morning early afternoon. Temperatures and humidity levels will climb through the roof at that point. Surface temperatures should climb up into the upper 80's with dewpoints reaching the mid 70's. That will put heat index numbers up into the mid to upper 90's. Put another way....it will feel like a sauna outside Thursday afternoon. A cold front will quickly approach the viewing area during the afternoon. This front along with the heating of the day will provide more than enough lift for these thunderstorms to develop. With cape values once again in the lower 3000 range, this rising air will have nothing to cap it off. That means 40,000ft supercell thunderstorms are a good possibility. These are the storms that are capable of producing the most damage. Strong damaging winds along with large hail more than likely will accompany these storms.

A WAY OUT OF ALL OF THIS?

Nothing is ever definite in this business but at this point severe weather for Thursday looks to be a lock. There is one way out of all of this though. This is a far stretch at this point but it could still happen. If showers and thunderstorms develop tonight and linger into the first part of the day on Thursday it is possible that the air never reaches it's peak unstable point. If clouds hang tough tomorrow and that sun has a difficult time breaking through then temperatures will be no where near the upper 80's and instability will not be as great. Therefore, these thunderstorms will not be as strong. Chances of this happening? Honestly, they are not that great right now but it still could happen. If your not a big fan of severe weather this is the scenario that you want to be cheering for.

Evening Update 5/23/06

2006-05-23T19:26:00.001-07:00

Two part storm system will bring not one but two chances of showers and thunderstorms to Southcentral Kentucky.

Latest forcast model information showing the possibility of hail..... strong winds.....heavy rains.....dangerous cloud to ground lighting.

Starting to look like your classic springtime set up for severe weather!

Here we go.....the 00z forecast model run is now in as of this writing (9:30 pm TUE) and it continues to show very juicy unstable air surging north out of the Gulf Of Mexico over the next 24 to 36 hours. The deep south as of this writing feels like a sauna with temperatures in the low 80's and dewpoints in the mid to upper 70's. That is the soupy air that will push through Bowling Green with an approaching warm front very early Thursday Morning. A few showers and severe thunderstorms could break out along this boundary. These storms have the capability of producing strong gusty winds and hail. As is the case with most strong to severe thunderstorms torrential rains could become a factor as well creating ponding on roadways and rapid changes in visibility for motorists that will be traveling.

Thursday afternoon is when we have the better shot at seeing some severe weather here in Southcentral Kentucky. Once that warm front pushes through the area it will place us in the warm sector of this storm system......this is when temperatures and humidity will really begin to soar creating a perfect set up for severe weather with the approach of the cold front. The cold front will create the lifting needed for thunderstorm development and with just enough shearing developing from the surface to 850mb (5,500 ft.) some supercell storms and severe storms will develop. Some of these storms could produce damaging winds 50 -65 mph, large hail and dangerous lightning.
The NAM (North Atlantic Mesoscale) continues to show very unstable numbers right now. The 00z run Tuesday evening printed out a sweat index number of 426 which continues to rank very high on our severe weather protocol scale. With high cape values and very negative lifted index numbers all looks to be in line for a round of rough weather.

Keep it tuned to NBC 40 for the very latest weather information.

Wow! What Happened Late Friday Night??

2006-05-21T11:06:00.000-07:00

You can definitely call this one a sneak attack...that's for sure.
Late Friday Night into early Saturday Morning heavy hitters roared through Southcentral Kentucky. The battle ground happened to be the NBC40 viewing area including the counties of Logan... Butler...Warren... Barren... Allen... Monroe and Simpson. Widespread torrential rains and marble size hail accompanied these storms as well as very dangerous frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes. Some of these thunderstorms produced rainfall rates of up to 2.5 inches per hour which caused flash flooding in low lying areas and areas of poor drainage as well as some roadways. Fortunately though, they were quick movers and the high waters receeded rapidly. Hundreds of lightning strikes were reported as well as lightning lit up the night sky for hours.

SO WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED?

Thursday night was the first time that the forecast models really began to see this event. Surface instability was strong enough to produce severe weather as the Sweat Index was printing out a number of 498. This number is so high in fact that on our severe weather scale here at NBC40 an isolated tornado had also become possible. There was only one thing that was keeping these monster storms from developing during the afternoon on Friday and that was something called a cap. As I explained earlier in the day on Friday a cap puts a lid on thunderstorm development in the atmosphere. It allows thunderstorms to only mature and grow to a certain point.....once they reach the cap that's it there done growing. Unless, there is some kind of lifting mechanism that is able to break through this cap.....i.e. a cold front, area of low pressure, orographical lift....something that forces the air to rise higher than it normally would.

Friday afternoon came and went and with the exception of a few isolated strong thunderstorms that pushed across Allen, Simpson and western Warren counties there really wasn't that much weather to speak about. Don't get me wrong, some of these storms were quite strong but they never reached severe criteria (winds 58mph or greater, hail 3/4 of an inch in diameter or greater and/or a tornado). These isolated thunderstorms then quickly weakened as the sun began to set and we started to lose that daytime heating which is such a powerful indgedient in thunderstorm development. So at that point it looked like we were in the clear. But there was one small thing that was overlooked by the National Weather Service and the Storm Predicition Center and everyone else for that matter. That was the power of this little area of low pressure (vort max) that was still yet to push through this unstable air that was already in place here in the viewing area. Severe thunderstorm watches never went up until the storms had started to develop, therefore warning time was very short. Honestly, it's a good thing that the dynamics really weren't in place for widespread tornadoes to develop because we would have then been in serious trouble.

HERE WAS THE MAJOR PROBLEM

The problem occurred because the air here in Southcentral Kentucky remained very unstable through the early evening hours. Even though the sun had set there was still good instability at the surface. So when this mini disturbance (low pressure system) pushed through that unstable air it was like throwing paper on a fire and really got things going. This little mini low pressure system was like a charging bull....it was moving very quickly and packed quite a punch. This system had more than enough energy with it to break through that afternoon cap. Therefore thunderstorms not only developed rapidly but they intensified rapidly as well. Once that cap was broken they were able to feed off of that instability and grow into monster storms. Very heavy rains and marble size hail was reported right here in Bowling Green, as well as gusty winds and very dangerous cloud to ground lightning strikes. As mentioned earlier, the good news is they moved out quickly and really didn't produce too much in the way of damage.

COULD THIS HAPPEN AGAIN THIS YEAR?

Absolutely!! As a matter a fact I'm willing to bet money on it that it will happen again. Not necessarily due to a vort max (mini low pressure system) but because of something called an MCC..... Mesoscale Convective Complex. An MCC is a small organized area of convective thunderstorms that are able to travel great distances because they feed off of each others updrafts and downdrafts. They also usually travel through very unstable air during the late spring and summer months. The good news is during the summer months they usually bring much needed rainfall. They are characterized as very quick moving and quire powerful. Often times they occurr during the middle of the night when everyone is asleep so a lot of times you don't even know they pushed through. Now that we're fastly approaching the summer months these are the little systems that we will have to begin to concern ourselves with. Do tornadoes usually develop with MCC's? Sometimes. That's not to say they can't because they most certainly can but ususally tornado development with these systems is very minimum at best.

I will be graphically showing what transpired Friday Night during Monday' Evenings (5/22) 4:56 and 5:56 shows.

Severe Weather This Afternoon? 5/19/06

2006-05-19T09:16:00.000-07:00

Still watching out for the possibility of strong to severe thunderstorms to develop this afternoon. The forecast models still show very good surface instability and strong upper level support for thunderstorm development.....

Comparing computer runs from last night to this morning......as always, the numbers are bouncing around a little bit. But every severe weather parameter that I look at has been met on my severe weather checklist with the exception of the cape. But I was never expecting long duration severe thunderstorms to develop and move across the state anyway so the fact that the cape is not there doesn't concern me too much.

LAST NIGHT (00z 7pm) THIS MORNING (12z 7am)

0-3 km Helicty 806.2 0-3 km Helicity 505.6

Lifted Index -3.4 Lifted Index -4.8

Sweat Index 498.6 Sweat Index 397

Showalter Index -3.7 Showalter Index -5.3

A couple of things that really stick out to me here like a sore thumb is the 0-3 km Helicity values and the Sweat Index. The 0-3 km helicity indicates shearing at the lowest levels of the atmosphere. It is this shearing that produces strong, sometimes damaging winds and possibe tornadoes. Generally when this number gets to around 350.0 - 400.o we begin to become concerned. Even though the 0-3 km helicity value is down a little bit this morning from last night it is still a very high number right now indicating very strong shearing. The sweat index is also very high and just a hairs length below tornado range this morning. But as you can see last night it was well in tornado range (tornado range is 400 on the sweat index scale).

So the ingredients are there for the possibility of severe weather this afternoon. Once that disturbance (low pressure vort. max) from the northwest drops down and passes by just to our southwest, that's when we should begin to see these stroms fire up.

1) Will everyone see severe weather this afternoon? NO

2) Will everyone see thunderstorms this afternoon? NO

The best chances of seeing thunderstorm activity this afternoon will be south and west of Bowling Green. This is also the area that has the best shot at seeing severe weather as well. Again, keep in mind here.......not everyone will see a severe thunderstorm today. But those of us that do, run the risk of seeing strong damaging winds, hail and possibly an isolated spin up tornado.

Say It Isn't So Upper Level Low !!

2006-05-11T20:37:00.000-07:00

Let me just be upfront right now and say.....if you want to see any kind of warm weather this weekend your gonna have to travel to either Florida or the desert southwest. That's because a very large upper level low pressure system has essentially been cut off from the main flow aloft and planted itself right over the Great Lakes States.

What does that mean for you....... that means......

1) It stays unseasonably chilly (temps some 10 to 15 degrees below normal)

2) Early sunshine fades to afternoon clouds and scattered showers.

I've talked about this upper level low pressure system for the past severeal days now and I've gotten several questions from viewers wondering why exactly does the sun create showers during the afternoon when a pattern like this develops. To answer this question I'm gonna to have to hit ya with a little bit of buoyancy and dynamics.

An unstable atmosphere is created when the temperature of a parcel of air is warmer than it's surrounding environment. That parcel of air then rises and will continue to rise up into the atmosphere until the temperature of it's environment either becomes equal to or warmer than that parcel....... During the spring and summer months the angle of the sun is at it's highest point in the sky, therefore, the rays of the sun are much stronger than what they would be during the winter months. With the rays of the sun being as strong as they are this time of the year all that is needed to create instability is cold air aloft. Enter this upper level low pressure system from the northwest. The air aloft within this upper level low pressure system is very cold for this time of the year. So as the sun shines down now it begins to warm the ground very quickly.....the ground than warmes the surface air through conduction. That surface air then begins to rise up into the atmosphere. An unstable atmosphere has been created. Eventually this air will condense into clouds and showers and even thundershowers at times. So this pattern is what I like to call "self destructive." The more sunshine we see during the early afternoon the greater the chance we have of seeing showers during the evening.
Eventually this upper level low pressure system will kind of spin itself out and will loosen it's grips on Southcentral Kentucky. But it's going to take several days for that to happen. So until then...we'll keep the threat of showers in the forecast almost every day for the next five days with the exception of this upcoming Friday.

5/9/06 Evening Update

2006-05-09T15:14:00.000-07:00

Forecast models starting to recognize the pattern now......strong to severe thunderstorms looking more likely on Wednesday.

It looks like Wednesday is going to be anything but nice around here, at least in terms of the weather. If you step outside I'm sure you can already feel the difference in the airmass from what it was like yesterday. Yesterday it was very pleasant. The humidity levels were kept in check and there was a very nice comfortable breeze out there. It was the perfect spring-like day!
Today felt more like the middle of summer! For the most part clouds dominated the skies, humidity levels were much higher and temperatures were warmer. This is all going to lead up to a very active day for tomorrow.

A powerful cold front will swing through here tomorrow. Along this front an area of low pressure will develop and rapidly intensify. This deepening area of low pressure will add extra lift and aid in the further development of these thunderstorms for tomorrow. Cape values right now are not too terribly high only ranging from 300 to 750. But other parameters have taken a turn towards the more negative side this morning including the SWEAT INDEX. Abundant low level moisture will help to create very heavy downpours with some of these thunderstorms. So keep this in mind for tomorrow and be prepared for rapidly changing driving conditions. Visibility as well as ponding on roadways could become an issue if your caught underneath one of these storms. Also watching out for the possibility of flooding in low lying areas and areas of poor drainage.

Latest Forecast Information......

Lifted Index -1.7

Showalter Index -0.3

Sweat Index 345

0-3 km Helicty 270

The latest forecast model information is showing that the bulk of the severe weather should stay to our west, closer towards Paducah. This area extends southward into western Tennessee, northern Mississippi and northwestern portions of Alabama. At this time I am expecting strong thunderstorms during the day tomorrow here in Bowling Green with some of them possibly turning severe. Some of these storms have the potential to drop very heavy amounts of rain as well as strong gusty winds and maybe a few areas of small hail. Not everyone will see a severe thunderstorm tomorrow but some locations look like they have a good chance of seeing it.
Both the Showalter Index and the 0-3km Helicty remains only marginally unstable at this time but the SWEAT INDEX really jumped up there now to 345. Here's where that ranks on our scale.....

0-200 No threat of thunderstorms

200 -300 Thunderstorms possible (nothing severe)

300-400 Severe Weather is possible (strong gusty winds, hail)

400-500 Severe storms could produce tornadoes

500+ Depending on other parameters.... a tornado outbreak is possible.

As always please stay tuned to NBC 40 and Accuweather for the very latest weather information. I'll update again tomorrow morning.

5/8/06 Evening Update

2006-05-08T16:13:00.000-07:00

Before I get into the latest forecast information I want to just quickly review what the SWEAT INDEX is and how we use it here at NBC 40 to help predict severe weather.

Basically without getting too technical the SWEAT INDEX is an index that takes parameters from the surface up to the middle layers of the atmosphere......it throws them all into an equation and then prints out a number. Depending on what exactly this number is determines how severe these thunderstorms will be. This number is put onto a scale.......the scale is as follows......

0-200 No threat of thunderstorms

200-300 Possibility of thunderstorms (nothing severe)

300-400 The Possibility exists of severe thunderstorms (strong gusty winds, hail)

400-500 Thunderstorms have a good chance of producing tornadoes

500 + Depending on other parameters....... tornado outbreak is a possibility

On Saturday the NAM (North Atlantic Mesoscale) was just starting to get into range of Wednesday's event. At that time it was printing out a SWEAT INDEX number of 310 which is only marginally severe at best, especially for here. But another concern quickly arrised and that was how much moisture it was printing out. Almost an inch of rain was being printed out which was indicating to me that some of these storms were going to produce very heavy downpours. But this mornings 12z (7am) run really jumped all over this thing. Not necesarrily in terms of severe weather but in regards to heavy downpours. This mornings SWEAT INDEX rose up 324 for Wednesday which again is still only marginally severe at best. But it increased it's liquid output to over an inch and a half now to 1.56" during that same timeframe. The 12z run on the GFS (Global Forecast System) ... another forecast model that we use here at NBC 40 printed out a whopping 2.65" of rain for Wednesday. So heavy downpours looks to be a concern now for Wednesday here in Bowling Green. Now keep in mind that one of the GFS's faughts is that it sometimes overdoes it when it comes to printing out moisture with an approaching storm system. Is it over doing it here? It's tough to say at this point, but there certainly is the possibility that we could see some very heavy rain here because the Gulf Of Mexico is gonna open up for this one. We'll just have to wait and see how this pans out.

One problem that heavy rains like this creates is something called Flash Flooding. Flash flooding occurrs almost entirely without warning. Generally it develops in low lying areas and areas of poor drainage. But it can also develop along rivers, creeks and streams. All the tributaries dump there excess runoff into bigger bodies of water. During a flash flood that excess runoff becomes so high and so strong that the river or creek or stream that the excess water has been dumped into can no longer hold it's banks.

My thinking on Wednesday......right now I don't want to pull the trigger just yet. I want to see this evening's 00z run first. Especially after how poorly the models did last week. But for now I think Wednesday has the possibility of being a rather miserable day here in Southcentral Kentucky with numerous showers and thunderstorms and heavy downpours. Some of these storms could turn severe with gusty winds being the primary threat and flash flooding could occurr within some of the heavier downpours that are produced. Keep it tuned to NBC40 for the very latest weather information. I'll update again tomorrow afternoon.

5/6/06 Evening Update

2006-05-06T18:42:00.000-07:00

With the exception of a few showers later tonight and into the first part of the day on Sunday all is relatively quiet here in Southcentral Kentucky. That pattern will continue at least through Tuesday. Then Bowling Green and much of the Tennessee Valley and southern portions of the Ohio Valley have a good chance of seeing the possibility of at least some severe weather. Now this is still a little ways away so this is subject to change. But the way it looks right now late Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday is when we'll have our best shot of seeing this.
Dynamically looking at this system the setup looks like your typical Springtime severe weather event. A cold front will approach the viewing area from the northwest seperating very warm and humid air out ahead of it from much cooler, drier air behind it. The clash between the two airmasses and added extra lift from the cold front is more than enough to create thunderstorms. The jetstream aloft is the key ingredient that could turn these storms severe. Some of this energy aloft looks like it doesn't want to just sit this one out and could get involved. That would aid in the development in these storms and change an ordinary thunderstorm into a super cell thunderstorm. Those are the ones that produce the most intense weather including tornadoes.
Taking a look at some of the latest severe weather parameters here in Southcentral Kentucky they're marginally severe at best right now. But that's because the forecast models haven't really picked up on the upper level support yet. This event is also just now getting in range of the NAM (North Atlantic Mesoscale) which only goes out up to 84 hours.

As of 12z Saturday.....
Lifted Index..... -1.3
Showalter Index...... 0.3
Sweat Index........ 310
0-3 km Helicity....... 165

Out of the four parameters that I've listed above only two have met the criteria for severe weather. But they are only marginally in range right now. So again, this is something that we're watching for the possibility of further development. The timeframe on this again would be very late Tuesday evening into much of the day on Wednesday. The timing as well as the intensity is still pretty much in the air at this point.
I will be updating you on this during my weather casts at 4:56, 5:56 and 10pm.

5/3/06 Evening Update

2006-05-03T15:19:00.000-07:00

As of 6pm CDT we continue to watch a cluster of showers and thunderstorms approaching from the southwest. The states of Missouri, Arkansas, Illinois, western Tennessee and extreme western Kentucky have all been put under a severe thunderstorm watch. All compliments to a mini complex of storms that has fired up just ahead of an advancing cold front. These storms will more than likely swing through Southcentral Kentucky within the next couple of hours. The western portions of our viewing area stand the greatest risk of seeing some of these storms before they dissipate. A heavy dowpour and a strong gust of wind could accompany these storms.

...COMPUTER MODELS...
The 12z (7am) run on the NAM (North Atlantic Mesoscale) shows a couple of rounds of showers and thunderstorms over the next couple of days. The first in a series should move through very late tonight into the early morning hours in the form of scattered thunderstorms. Dynamically severe weather is not anticipated, however, some of these storms could still pack quite a punch. A break in the action could occur by midday, early afternoon. Clouds could even break for some sunshine for a time before the next round moves in during the late afternoon hours. This will be the trend over the next 48 hours.
The 12z (7am) run on the GFS (Global Forecast System) tells a slightly different story. It agrees with the whole round after round thinking but differs in it's intensity. It prints out more than three quarters of an inch with a round of very strong thunderstorms early Friday morning. This looks to be the most intense round over the next 48 hours, at least according to this forecast model. The NAM suggests that the most intense round will develop early Thursday morning.

So again all in all expect numerous showers and thunderstorms over the next 48 hours. These will occur in waves during this timeframe. I don't think Thursday or Friday will be a complete washout but just keep this in mind if you have outdoor activites planned.

...128th running of the Kentucky Derby.....
At this point it looks dry. This frontal system should have pushed out by the time they get ready to start. Saturday up in Louisville looks to feature clouds breaking for some sunshine with cooler temperatures in the mid 60's.

What Classifies A Thunderstorm As Severe?

2006-05-02T18:42:00.000-07:00

This is an interesting question.....there are numerous times through out the year when a mighty thunderstorm may sweep through your neck of the woods. Some of these storms may be on the severe side while others are not. Often times there may be reports of wind damage or even small hail with some of these thunderstorms but that does not classify them as severe. Nor does heavy downpours, intense lightning or loud roars of thunder. All of which can create hazardous situations, especially while driving through one. But that doesn't mean that it was a severe thunderstorm. A severe thunderstorm is classified as such when winds gust to 58 mph or higher, hail three quarters of an inch in diameter or greater has been reported and/or a tornado has developed. This is the criteria set by the Storm Prediction Center in Norman Oklahoma and The National Weather Service.
I've seen reports of wind gusts in thunderstorms of only 45 mph not only knock tree branches down before but knock down entire trees themselves as well as power lines. But when all was said and done because the gusts never reached 58 mph it wasn't a severe thunderstorm that produced the damage. I've seen reports of hail accumulating on the ground so much that it looked like it was snowing but it was only pea size hail. So again when all was said and done it was not a severe thunderstorm that produced this. Again, the criteria for a severe thunderstorm is winds gusting to 58 mph or greater, hail three quarters of an inch in diameter or greater and/or a tornado.
When a tornado develops the thunderstorm immediately becomes severe and a tornado warning is issued by The National Weather Service. Tornadoes are the single most devastating storm on the planet and develop more frequently in no other place than the United States. This is the type of weather that is most feared because of how rapidly, without warning it can develop and because of how destructive it can become. The weather during the months of April and May usually wreak havic across the midwest and the central plains because of the numerous tornado outbreaks. This is the time of year known as transition. When winter is giving up to summer or what it better known as springtime. These thunderstorms are fueled by great contrasts in temperature between the very warm moist air coming from the Gulf Of Mexico and the much cooler, drier air coming down from Canada. Throw in the jetstream and shearing begins to develop......that's when tornadoes become of a concern. Tornado season includes the first part of June as well but as we get into the very warm months of summer tornadoes are less likely. That's because by this time the mighty jetstream has retreated all the way up into Canada. During November when the jetstream decides to visit us again a mini tornado season develops but quickly dissipates as the colder months of January and February arrive.

So again......a severe thunderstorm is classified as such when winds gust to 58 mph or higher, hail of three quarters of an inch in diameter or greater is reported and/or a tornado develops.

2006-04-10T14:36:00.000-07:00

This is a test post for technical purposes.

-TS

Central Plains Getting Blasted!! Afternoon Update

2006-03-30T13:58:00.000-08:00

Severe weather has already developed across the central plains states this afternoon with numerous watches and warnings in effect which include the states of .......Missouri, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas and Arkansas.

A powerful (deepening) area of low pressure continues to march off to the east and will pull into the Great Lakes by Friday. As it makes it's way to the east we'll feel the effects of two fronts here in Southcentral Kentucky. First, showers and thunderstorms will develop out ahead of a warm front to our south. This moisture will push through during the morning hours. Then we'll catch a break in the action and may even see some sunshine during the afternoon before the second round of moisture moves in. Round two will be much more significant than round number one and this is where the bulk of our severe weather will come from. Damaging winds in excess of 65 mph as well as hail and dangerous cloud to ground lightning will accompany this line of storms as it makes it's way through Bowling Green.

Update on our severe weather parameters.............

Tuesday Night
Lifted Index -3.8
Showalter Index -1.7
Sweat Index 304.0
0-3 km Helicity 228.1 j/kg

Wednesday Morning
Lifted Index -2.7
Showalter Index 1.4
Sweat Index 200.2
0-3 km Helicity 277.2 j/kg

Wednesday Evening
Lifted Index -2.1
Showalter Index 2.0
Sweat Index 264.5
0-3 km Helicity 271.0 j/kg

Thursday Morning
Lifted Index -3.7
Showalter Index -2.4
Sweat Index 313.3
0-3 km Helicity 250.5 j/kg

This is a perfect example why you can not change your forecast everytime a new model run comes in. If you go back to Tuesday Night you can see that everything was pointing towards severe weather around here. The lifted index and the showalter index were well in negative territory which indicates strong surface instability. Both computer runs on Wednesday however backed off a little bit. The showalter index on Wednesday actually went positive which shows a more stable atmosphere at that point. So severe weather wasn't looking as promising yesterday. But then look what happened this morning. All the computer runs jumped back in and now they all see what could potentially be a dangerous situation around here for Friday afternoon. The only good news with this severe weather that will move in here is it doesn't look to be tornadic. Tornadoes are always a possibility with thunderstorms and certainly could develop tomorrow. But I think for the most part this is going to be a straight line wind event here in Bowling Green with numerous bow echos and some hail as well. Convective wind gusts could exceed 65 mph with any of these storms tomorrow afternoon.
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We will maintain our rating of a 3 on the Severe Weather Protocol scale.....

1) Slightly Unstable

2) Moderately Unstable
(One Or Two Storms Could Turn Severe)

3) Very Unstable
( Severe Weather Anticipated)

4) Extremely Unstable
(Possible Tornadoes)

Possible Big Boomers Friday?

2006-03-29T18:17:00.000-08:00

Still watching a potent storm system moving in for Friday. As is the case a lot of times when dealing with issues concerning timing and intensity the forecast models are jumping around a little bit right now. Some of the latest severe weather parameters that we look at here at NBC 40 continue to show good instability at the surface to support possible severe thunderstorms for Friday. Other parameters have backed down just a little bit.

Highlighted numbers indicate strong surface instability needed to produce severe weather.......

Tuesday Night......
Lifted Index -3.8
Showalter Index -1.7
Sweat Index 304.0
0-3 km Helicity 228.1 j/kg

Wednesday Morning........
Lifted Index -2.7
Showalter Index 1.4
Sweat Index 200.2
0-3 km Helicity 277.2 j/kg

Wednesday Night.....
Lifted Index -2.1
Showalter Index 2.0
Sweat Index 264.5
0-3 km Helicity 271.0 j/kg

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If your not a big fan of severe weather you like what your seeing here. With the exception of the Sweat Index, everything else looks like it's heading in the right direction. The Lifted Index (although still pretty unstable) is continuing to drop closer to zero which is an indication of a less unstable atmosphere. The Showalter Index continues to climb higher up into positive territory which is also a sign of some stabilization now being forecasted.
However, don't be fooled here. The jetstream is still very strong and your gonna get good lifting with the passage of that cold front. So severe weather is still a good bet here in Southcentral Kentucky for Friday. But I do like this trend overall it is showing a less intense area of showers and thunderstorms moving through Friday afternoon.

We will maintain our rating this evening (3/29) on our Severe Weather Protocal scale at a 3.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1) Slightly Unstable

2) Moderately Unstable
(One or two storms could turn severe)

3) Very Unstable
(Severe weather is expected)

4) Extremely Unstable
(Possible Tornadoes)

Watching Friday! 3/31/06

2006-03-28T16:09:00.000-08:00

A storm system currently off the California coastline will eventually push across the central plains states and into the Great Lakes by the end of the week. Out ahead of it temperatures will soar well up into the 70's with a strong southly breeze and ample amounts of sunshine. But this gorgeous weather may come at a price later on down the road.

What could actually happen is two days of widespread severe weather. First to be hit would be the eastern portions of Tornado Alley........including the states of Missouri, Arkansas, eastern Kansas and eastern Oklahoma. This is the area where damaging winds, hail and tornadoes could occurr on Thursday.

In time this system will continue to push off to the east. A second area of severe weather could develop on Friday. This area would include the Mississippi River Valley as well as the lower portions of the Ohio Valley eastward into the Appalachian Mountains. This also includes the Bowling Green area. The primary threat here would be strong damaging winds.

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Latest Severe Weather Parameters.......... as of 7am (12z) NAM EXTRACTED

Lifted Index -3.8
Showalter Index -1.8
Sweat Index 305.3 (300 for strong storms , 400 for severe storms w/ tornadoes)
0-3 km Helicity 261.1 (J/kg)

Basically how you read this is quite simple. The lower (more negative) the Lifted Index and the Showalter Index numbers become the more unstable the atmosphere is becoming. Click the SevereWeather Protocol link for a complete look at what these numbers mean. So as you can see both the Lifted Index and the Showalter Index are in negative territory right now for Friday.

The kicker with this event is going to once again be the jetstream. Mainly because of how strong it is right now. As these storms develop we could very easily see some of this energy aloft transported down to the surface. If this starts to happen then we have problems. Winds in any one of these storms could very easily exceed 65 mph. Dangerous cloud to ground lightning could potentially be a problem as well along with hail.

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Right now on our Severe Weather Protocol we are going to rank this a 3 on a scale of 1 to 4.
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1) Slightly Unstable

2) Moderatley Unstable (1 or 2 storms could turn severe)

3) Very Unstable (severe weather anticipated)

4) Extremely Unstable (tornadoes possible)

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I'll continue to update you on this every evening as we get closer and closer to Friday. The next forecast model update should start coming down around 8:30 pm (CST).

Potential Dangerous Storms Update 3/12/06

2006-03-12T20:40:00.000-08:00

Portions of the viewing area are still recovering from Thursday's wicked weather that roared through. Four bow echoes with winds gusting as high as 70 to 80 mph (hurricane strength) caused widespread damage to some structures as well as numerous power outages and downed trees. That was this past Thursday's weather here in Southcentral Kentucky. Now it looks like we may actually do it all over again on Monday.

The radar continues to light up to our west through the states of Missouri, Kansas, Iowa and Illinois where more than 50 confirmed tornadoes have touched down today. Over 270 reports of hail and/or hail damage was confirmed and 52 reports of wind damage (winds excess of 55 mph). That's the kind of weather that folks have been dealing with within the central plains states all afternoon and evening. The bad news for them is it's only going to get worse before it gets better.

The weather will begin to go downhill for us as well as this same system continues to march to the east. If you were out and about at all this afternoon in and around Bowling Green you felt how muggy the air has become. That has quickly destabilized the atmosphere here in Southcentral Kentucky and a dry line has now developed through Missouri. This dryline seperates very warm and humid air to the east (Ohio Valley) from cooler, dryer air to the west (Central Plains States). Where these two airmasses collide widespread severe weather is expected. That's already taking place to our west. Hailstones over 4 inches in diameter (softball size) have fallen over extreme eastern portions of Kansas and Missouri. Hailstones 3 inches in diamter (baseball size) have fallen this evening through Illinois and Iowa. Straightline wind gusts in excess of 80 mph have not only caused damage to some strucures, they have completely moved some structures off their foundations entirely. It has been a very dangerous and very scary evening out to our west.

Severe weather could break out across Southcentral Kentucky as well for Monday. Periods of rain and thunderstorms can be expected throughout the day. Some of these storms that develop will become severe. Strong gusty winds, large hail and torrential rains are to be expected. The National Weather Service already has our western portions of the viewing area under a flash flood watch in anticipation of heavy rains with these thunderstorms. More than likely a tornado watch and/or a severe thunderstorm watch will be issued Monday morning as well. Temperatures will continue to be very warm for this time of the year running some 15 degrees above normal. The normal high for this time of the year is 57 degrees. Sunday's high was 78, we'll follow that up with a 71 Monday afternoon. Humidity levels will continue to be very high as well giving the air that oppressive feel to it. Winds will be very strong throughout the day. Sustained at 25 to 30 mph with gusts possibly as high as 40 mph. That's not even including what could possibly happen within some to the thunderstorms that develop. Once the cold front pushes through during the afternoon that will be it for severe weather. Cooler, drier air will move in from the northwest stabilizing our atmosphere and the rest of the week looks cooler and quiet (with the exception of a rain/shower threat for Thursday).

So if you will be traveling in and around the area Monday be on the lookout for rapidly deteoriating weather conditions. Be prepared to make frequent changes in speed due to heavy rains in thunderstorms that will cause visibilities to drop to near zero at times. Heavy rains will also cause ponding on roadways and possible flash flooding in low lying areas and areas of poor drainage. I can't stress this enough if you should stumble on to a flooded roadway do not try to cross it. Seek an alternate route. The water could be higher than you might think and could easily sweep your car away. Make sure you tie down any loose items in your yard or barn, i.e. trash cans of lawn furniture. Winds could gust as high as 70 mph in some of the severe thunderstorms that develop.

Clash of the Titans Thursday! 3/8/06

2006-03-08T14:03:00.000-08:00

Get set for a pretty active evening here in Southcentral Kentucky on Thursday. A powerful disturbance will continue to pull northeast out of the central plains states. Out ahead of it's trailing cold front a line of strong thunderstorms will develop. Some of these storms will become severe producing strong possibly damaging winds and hail across portions of the viewing area. The further west you go the greater your chances are of seeing this severe weather.

The set up for this event is going to be very similar to that of what we saw when we had that tornadoe outbreak back in November. I think for the most part though the tornadic activity should stay to our south and west. As I explained last night during the 10:00pm weathercast it's wind shear within the atmosphere that will set these storms off. Wind shear is the change in winds with height. It can either be directional or it can be wind speed itself. This creates rotation within a thunderstorm. These types of storms are able to travel great distances because the downdraft is not able to suffocate the updraft and the storm is able to maintain it's intensity. Often times because of the rotation within these storms strong damaging straight-line winds and/or tornadoes develop. This is the kind of weather that we will be on the look out for tomorrow.

Taking a wider look at the Ohio and Mississippi River Valley's the bullseye for severe weather Thursday runs through Louisianna, Mississippi, Arkansas, western Tennessee, western Kentucky and eastern Missouri. This is where all of the dynamics will be in place....i.e. surface instability as well as upper level suport. It is this area where the greatest chances of seeing tornadoes, damaging stright-line winds and large hail exists. Coming back home to our viewing area.......the greatest chances of seeing severe weather in our neck of the woods will be in the southwestern portions of our viewing area. The counties of Todd, Muhlenberg, Mc Lean, and Robertson, from those counties west you run the greatest risk of seeing severe weather.

The 12z (7am) run on the NAM (North Atlantic Mesoscale) continues to show good dynamical support for these storms. Although some of the parameters have backed off slightly, it's still going to be unstable enough around here to produce that severe weather. Keep this in mind if your going to be traveling tomorrow evening or if your making any plans.

Thursday's Getting Interesting! Update 3/7/06

2006-03-07T14:05:00.000-08:00

As we move forward through the week we're growing more and more concerned about the possibility of severe weather for Thursday evening. The NAM (North Atlantic Mesoscale) is starting to pump out some really unstable numbers now. This is the beginning of March so as the sun angle gets higher in the sky and we get closer to Springtime we typically begin to see this kind of thing. But the 12z run (7am) on the NAM was printing out 0-3 km Helicity values of over 700 J/kg which is ridiculous! Helicity helps to show rotation of winds with height throughout the lower levels of the atmosphere. Just to give an example here......we usually look for values of between 450 and 550 before we worry about wind damage with thunderstorms. So as you can see by that 700, winds could become damaging within any of these storms that develop Thursday evening. But we also look at other things........

Instability........ The lifted Index is a measure of how unstable the atmosphere is. Positive numbers represent stable air while negative numbers represent unstable air. The greater the negative number, the greater the instability in the atmosphere. Usually this time of the year when we look for the big boomers to develop we generally look for index numbers between -2 and -4. The 12z NAM run was printing out a -3.5. So there's another plus for severe weather for Thursday evening.

The SWEAT Index takes a vertical profile of the atmosphere along with other parameters and basically shows whether or not the atmosphere is ripe for producing severe thunderstorms. A value of 300 or greater indicates that there is a chance of thunderstorms. A value of 400 or greater indicates that there is a possibility for severe weather including tornadoes. The 12z run on the NAM showed a value of 407. So once again there's another plus for severe weather on Thursday.

The jetstream always plays a malor role in the kind of weather we get here in Southcentral Kentucky. That's because a lot of times the winds within the jetstream this time of the year are very powerful. All it takes is for one or two of these thunderstorms to actually tap into this jetstream and allow energy aloft to be transported down to the surface. This is when damaging straight line winds come into play. Well the jetstream will be to our west when these storms develop. But not too far to our west. It will run right over eastern Missouri and Arkansas, southern Illinois and central Indiana. So even though it will be to our west it is still very close by.

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SEVERE WEATHER PROTOCOL SCALE .....................

1) Slightly Unstable

2) Moderately Unstable
(Severe Weather Possible)

3) Very Unstable
(Severe Weather Expected)

4) Extremely Unstable
(Tornadoes Possible)

Right now on the scale of 1 to 4 we'll continue to go with a 2. But if the next run on the NAM comes in with the same numbers or slightly more unstable then I may have to bump this up to a 3. So again just keep this in mind as you make your plans for Thursday evening.

Watching Thursday! Update 3/6/06

2006-03-06T20:17:00.000-08:00

Oh how things get interesting by the end of the week! How does 75 degrees sound to you for March 9th? Keep in mind the normal high for this time of the year is 55 degrees so we're forecasting some twenty degrees above normal by the end of the week. But we may have to pay for that by Thursday Night in the form of severe weather.

Two part system......................
________________________________________________________________

PART ONE........
This is the warm front. It will swing through here during the day on Wednesday. Temperatures will climb into the low to mid 60's once this front passes. There could be a few showers developing with this front as well but most of the steady activity looks like it wants to stay to our north at this time. So with that said expect a lot of clouds during the day on Wednesday with some breaks of sun and pleasant temperatures with the chance of a few showers late. The problem is when this warmer air begins to usher in here the atmosphere will start to destabilize. Lifted index numbers go down to an impressive -2.5 by Thursday Night. The showalter index drops down to zero and the Sweat Index shoots above 400. This is showing very good surface instability and good upper level dynamic support. So the fire is burning at this point. All we now is some fuel and we're going to get it Thursday Night.
________________________________________________________________

PART TWO.......
This is the cold front. This looks like it wants to slam through here Thusday Night. Again the instability is in place. The only question I have at this point is will most of this severe weather stay to our south? Or, will it make it's way in here. The further south you go the better your chances are of seeing the severe weather. Western Tennessee, eastern Arkansas and Louisianna, it's a lock..... bank on severe weather. The BIG question mark here is how much surface instability will we see fire up these storms. As I mentioned on air last night the worst thing that could happen is for you to wake up Thursday morning, look out your window and see wall to wall sunshine. That will be like throwing paper on a fire, it will burn rapidly. The atmosphere in essence will do the same thing. The more sun we get the more unstable we turn. We're cheering for more clouds than sun for Thursday. This may actually help to choke off that cold front, limiting the threat for severe weather. One things for certain and that's temperatures behind this front will not drop off all that much. It will stay very warm as we head into the weekend. Friday's forecasted high right now is 72 degrees followed by a whopping 76 for Saturday. So you can see the warm air stays.
_________________________________________________________________

SEVERE WEATHER PROTOCAL SCALE

1) Slightly Unstable

2) Moderately Unstable
(Severe Weather Possible)

3) Very Unstable
(Severe Weather Expected)

4) Extremely Unstable
(Possible Tornadoes)

Using this scale we will rank this event a 2 right now. That means a few of these storms could turn severe with storng gusty, possibly damaging winds. I want to let a couple more computer runs come in before I change anything. But I have to tell you I'm starting to want to lean in the direction of #3. That would mean changing this forecast from severe weather possible to severe weather expected. Keep this in mind if you have any plans for Thursday Afternoon/Evening. I'll update tomorrow.

Active Ending To The Week? Update 3/5/06

2006-03-05T10:37:00.000-08:00

The short term sees a few showers moving in here later this afternoon and evening. The radars out to the west in and around the Paducah and Benton area show a rather raggedy looking shield of moisture pushing east. None of this moisture is too terribly heavy but the steadiest of the precipitation should stay to our north. Although, the newest run (12z) of the GFS (Global Forecast System) on the extracted site does print out about .32 of an inch of liquid. The NAM (North Atlantic Mesoscale) shows considerably less at only .06. Looking at the radars at 12:30pm CST I think a compromise between the two forecast models will best fit this situation. So we'll look for anywhere from .10 to .15 of an inch. So again this is just showers this evening.

This is not a forecast from NBC40.....it's what the latest forecast models are showing at this time.................

Another rather weak system looks like it want to move in here late Tuesday Night into Wednesday. This one may start out weak but it could really set the stage for a few heavy hitters later in the week. What's hapening is temperatures will really start to warmup in advance of a developing storm system that will be pulling out of the central plains states. A few showers could push into Southcentral Kentucky with a warm front. This would be the Tuesday Night into early Wednesday time frame. But the cold front wants to hang back. This would allow another area of low pressure, a much stronger area of low pressure to develop to our south near the Dallas, Texas area. This is going to do a couple of things.......first, it will really enhance a southerly flow that will allow temperatures here to go back up into the low to mid 70's by the end of the week. Second, it will rapidly begin to destabilize our atmosphere.
Most of Wednesday Night and Thursday look fine. The problem is going to be Thursday Night into Friday morning when the cold front finally slams through. Now with the jetstream digging to our west this entire storm system near Dallas must then pull north. That means this cold front will be backed by powerful winds aloft in the atmosphere when it pushes through. Not all of the dynamics are in place for this but enough are there so we could see a couple strong to possibly severe storms. Strong gusty winds look to be the primary threat if any storms do turn severe. Timing is going to be a big issue with this thing because if the cold front pushes through during the middle of the night then the daytime heating is lost. However, if it comes through during the late evening hours with temperatures running in the low to mid 70's and a raging jetstream aloft this could quite possibly turn into the first severe weather outbreak of March. The break that we get in between systems will play a major role as well. If skies clear out nicely Wednesday Night and Thursday and we get a good deal of sunshine in here that will help to fire up a few strong to severe stroms. If we get stuck in the clouds and it stays rather damp during this same time frame this would help to suffocate the instability and storms would not have a chance to grow. So we'll have to watch this very carefully. I have another update early next week.

Cooler Changes! Update 3/2/06

2006-03-02T15:12:00.000-08:00

Say goobye to all of that unseasonably warm air that we've had over the past couple of days. Wednesday's official high temperature came in at 76 degrees which tied the old record set back in 1976. It remained very warm this afternoon as well as the thermometer reached topped out at 67 degrees. This wasn't warm enough to set a record here in Bowling Green like yesterday but it was still well above the normal high of 54. Well...... like the saying goes "all good things must come to an end."
A cold front pushed through Southcentral Kentucky late last night and will continue to knock down our temperatures over the next several days. Temperatures by this weekend will fall back down to more seasonal levels for this time of the year, in the low 50's.

Precipitation Chances...........
____________________________________________________

Sunday March 5th
____________________________________________________

Our next chance of seeing any measurable precipitation around here will be on Sunday. An area of low pressure will pull out of the Central Plains States and move east directly across the Ohio Valley. The GFS (Global Forecast System) prints out between a half inch and three quarters of an inch with this event. So it looks rather soggy around here for the second part of your weekend. If you have any outdoor activities planned for Sunday you might want to try to bump them ahead to Saturday as this looks to be the better of the two days this weekend.

____________________________________________________

Tuesday Night March 7th - Wednesday March 8th
____________________________________________________

This event looks like an area of moisture developing out ahead of another area of low pressure moving out of the Central Plains States. This looks to pack quite a bit more of a punch than this upcoming weekend's event. The Gulf Of Mexico looks like it will start to open up again and some of the moisture that moves in may be enhanced thanks to a strong southerly flow. Forecast models are printing out a good three quarter of an inch to close to an inch of rain out of this. There is the possibility of even more out of this we'll just have to continue to wait and see how this all pans out. A few isolated thunderstorms can't be ruled out either. Again this would be Tuesday Night into Wednesday.

____________________________________________________

Friday March 10th
____________________________________________________

This one could be the Big Kahuna. A piece of energy riding out ahead of a developing storm system will work it's way in here Thursday Night into Friday. Once again backed by the Gulf Of Mexico this disturbance will have copious amounts of moisture to work with here. Early indications are somewhere in the line of 1.5 to as much as 2.5 inches of rain in some locations out of this storm system. That would be enough to cause flooding. Especially if we get the three quarters of an inch of rain the Wednesday before. So this looks like it could be a rather soggy start to next weekend. As always, i'll continue to update you as we get closer and closer! :)

Stays Quiet Update 2/27/06

2006-02-27T18:27:00.000-08:00

High pressure has taken control of our weather here in Southcentral Kentucky. That means very mild air will move into the region. The next chance of precipitation will come in the form of showers on Wednesday with the passage of a weak cold front. Temperatures behind this front are still very mild for this time of the year. It won't be until this upcoming weekend when we begin to see cooler weather return.

The jetstream has retreated very far to the north for this time of the year and runs from the front range of the Rockies into the Great Lakes States. This means the path to which all storms travel will run north of Bowling Green as well. Therefore, within the next two weeks there looks like there is only about three chances of seeing any measurable precipitation.

Precipitation Chances.............
Wednesday 3/1/06
Again this is a very weak cold front that will push through on Wednesday. Temperatures out ahead of this front will soar all the way up into the upper 60's to close to 70 degrees. The GFS (Global Forecast System) only prints out about .10 of an inch of liquid so again this is very scattered and is more of a nuisance event.

Sunday 3/5/06
This is rather interesting. This one could be a soaker here in Southcentral Kentcuky. It looks like the GFS wants to develop an area of low pressure out of the Central Plains States early Sunday morning. At this same time there is also another low on the North Dakota/ Canada border. So it almost appears like an energy transfer type thing going on. As the plains low continues to develop a solid shield of rain will develop as well. The bullseye at this point runs right over Bowling Green. Almost 1.25 inches of rain is being printed out with this plains states system.

Have to watch this one carefully. This developing storm could also be the beginnings of what could be another major Nor'easter for the Mid Atlantic States.

Sunday 3/11/06
The next chance of moisture doesn't arrive until... believe it or not a week later. This little rain maker looks like moisture being drawn northward out of the Gulf Of Mexico as an area of high pressure pushes east off the Carolina coast. About .25 of an inch of liquid is being printed out.

So as you can see the with the exception of this coming Sunday things look rather quiet around here. The jetstream will take another dive in the east by the beginning of next week so temperatures will once again cool off dramatically. But until then get out and enjoy the very spring-like weather!

Quiet's the word! Update 2/21/06

2006-02-21T17:38:00.000-08:00

With the exception of a little bit of shower activity early this morning we will be moving into a very quiet pattern over the next several days. Temperatures will rebound nicely into the low 50's for Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

It's all about understanding the pattern right now. Last week the split flow in the jetstream phased together and a deep trough developed in the east. This allowed very cold arctic air to spill down from the north and plant itself over the entire eastern half of the United States. This week, the northern branch of the jetstream has retreated to the north and taken that brutally cold air along with it. The southern branch of the jetstream dropped back down to our south and runs along the Gulf Coast. So right now we sit right in between the two of them. That means we'll be too far to the south to see any cold arctic air this week and we'll be too far to the north to tap into the really warm air as well. So we'll call it a normal week around here in Southcentral Kentucky with high temperatures around 50 degrees.

Now don't get too use to this because both the European and GFS (Global Forecast System) see another shot of brutally cold arctic air coming down from Canada for the second part of this upcoming weekend. The good news is this time around it shouldn't be quite as cold here in Southcentral Kentucky because the trough is digging more towards the southeast rather than the south. This means the core of that brutally cold air will stay in the Great Lakes States and in the Northeast. It will turn sharply colder around here, just not as cold as it was earlier this week.

Other than that there really isn't too much else going on. Some of the super extended long range forecast models and ensembles show a nice warmup for the first part of March with a big ridge developing in the central portion of the United States. Temperatures may shoot back up into the 60's during this timeframe. But winter may make another return by the second week of March as the GFS shows more in the way of brutally cold air making another charge into the lower 48. Backed by a negative NAO and a cross polar flow I would bet money on someone in the east getting a significant snowstorm followed by another cold shot before Spring arrives. The question is who will it be?????

Arctic Invasion Update 2/16/06

2006-02-16T19:04:00.000-08:00

Things getting very interesting around here over the next several days. Arctic invasion is on the way and a couple of chances of snow for the weekend. Both chances have the potential to dump several inches here in BowlingGreen.

SHORT TERM CONCERNS.......Saturday Morning.......It's a very close call at this point. The models have been inconsistent with the positioning and intensity of this disturbance.The MM5 shows light on and off snow showers during the day Saturday (no accumulation). The GFS, and all of the sudden the NAM both see 1 to 2 inches of snow on the ground by Saturday Morning.

LONG TERM CONCERNS......Sunday Night.......Another very close call!!! The NAM is lost on this one. The GFS shows an intense area of moisture pulling across the northern Mississippi River Valley and into our viewing area (2 to 4 Inches). The MM5 doesn't quite go out that far yet but is similar with it's thinking as we head into Sunday afternoon.

With all of that said let's take a closer look at the forecast models and try to break things down a little bit for you..............................

----------------
THE GFS
----------------
The GFS (Global Forecast System) shows a much colder weather pattern here in Bowling Green and a couple of chances for snow this upcoming weekend. The first one arrives Saturday morning, the second one Sunday Night. First, let's deal with Saturday morning's event. A cold front was in the process of pushing through as of this writing (Thu 9:00pm). The air behind this front was significantly colder than out ahead of it. Some 30 degrees colder to be exact. The cold air will push it's way down into the deep south. Pieces of energy will fire across the southern portions of the U.S. every other day thanks to a trough out in the west. The 850's (temps at 5,500ft.) are cold enough to support snowfall here in Bowling Green. The question is just exactly how far north does this moisture make it? One of two things are going to happen here. One, either the cold air is going to win out and surpress this moisture to the south and for the most part keep us dry. Or two, the moisture will win out and snow will develop. Right now the GFS has been flip flopping with the track of this moisture. Three days ago it brought the heaviest moisture bands through Southcentral Kentucky. The past two days it has kept the heaviest moisture south of here. This evening's 18z run continues to follow this pattern but does suggest 1 to 2 inches on the ground by Saturday Morning.
Another round of precipitation moves in here Sunday Night into Monday morning. But once again the track pushes the heaviest moisture to our south. However, tt does look like there will more of an accumulation though with this system because the heart of that cold air will begin pulling off to the east at this time. This will allow more of that moisture to surge farther north. So even though the heaviest might stay to our south Sunday Night, we may still end up seeing more of a snow accumulation than Saturday morning because the entire disturbance is more intense. Looks like 2 to 3 with this one.
So we have a couple of chances of snow this weekend according to the GFS. Neither too significant (at least it doesn't look that way at this point). The big story will be the cold air that invades the area. It will be the coldest air of the season so far.

---------------------------
THE MM5
---------------------------
The Air Force MM5 looks rather interesting this evening. It holds back the snow until midday Saturday and shows a much less intense more wide spread area of moisture. This area of moisture stretches all the way from the Texas panhandle to the Appalachian Mountains. It looks more like on and off snow shower activity rather than an area of steady accumulating snow. Either way we'll catch a break in the action Saturday Night and for most of the day on Sunday. Then a second round of moisture develops to our west across central Texas Sunday afternoon. Now this model only goes out 72 hours (1:oopm SUN) so I can't see Sunday Night yet. But I do want to point out that the moisture shield with this second disturbance is much further north than what the GFS is suggesting and more intense by hr72 (1:00pm SUN). That might suggest more in the way of snow here Sunday Night. This model has been consistent over the past several days now. So according to the MM5 it looks like on and off snow showers for Saturday with a more significant event looking to set up Sunday Night.

-------------------------
THE NAM
-------------------------
Oh the beloved NAM!!! It's been horrible so far this year!!! This is why I'm so frustrated with this forecast model. The NAM (North Atlantic Mesoscale) for some reason has not been seeing storms until the very last minute. Nothing will be printed out for days on this model and then all of the sudden we'll get to within 48 hours and the NAM finally decides to jump all over it. This event for Saturday morning is no exception. The past six runs on the NAM have been bone dry here in Southcentral Kentucky. Now all of the sudden it sees the event and prints out a couple of inches of snow. Not sure what your problem has been so far this season NAM but nice to finally see you hop aboard there and get in the game with this one.
The NAM does not even see Sunday Night's event until it is well past Bowling Green and into the Appalachian Mountains. I already don't like the positioning of this because I can already tell you that the high to the north that will bring in the brutally cold air on Saturday will not still be sitting back in Kansas at this point. So I won't even look any further out on this forecast model because everything from that point on is probably wrong.
Light snow here Saturday morning according to this model. Maybe an inch or two.

Mild To Wild!!! Update 2/15/06

2006-02-15T17:48:00.000-08:00

Things are getting very interesting now as we head into this upcoming weekend. Mild to wild may actually be an understatement. May end up being more like touch of spring to shov-el-ing (snow that is). Alright so that was a little far fetched but you get the idea here.

Very warm spring-like air will continue to make it's way into Southcentral Kentucky over the next 36 hours. Thursday's high temperatures could approach the 70 degree mark if we get a little more sunshine around here. For now we'll go with 66 here in Bowling Green but I'm almost positive someone in the viewing area will go higher than that.

As a cold front gets closer to the viewing area the winds will really begin to howl out of the southwest. That in itself may be enough to get those temps above 66 degrees. Anyway, back to the winds. A steep pressure gradient will develop between high pressure diving south from Canada and a developing area of low pressure pulling out of the central plains states. As both of these systems move closer to Southcentral Kentucky the winds will increase to 20 to 25 mph sustained with gusts between 30 and 40 mph. As mentioned on the webpage a Wind Advisory has not yet been issued by the National Weather Service but even still take the normal precautions if your going to be traveling. Precautions being take it slow driving high profile vehicles, especially if your going to be traveling down I-65. Crosswinds could become an issue. Also keep both hands on the steering wheel. Sudden gusts could create handling problems.

Once the cold front pulls through late Thursday Night it will turn sharply colder. Temperatures will drop some 20 to 30 degrees behind this front. Rain and a few thunderstorms will accompany this front. Nothing severe is expected at this time, however a few strong storms most certainly can not be ruled out. Friday for the most part seems fine other than the fact that it will be much colder outside. Your definitely going to need the heavy coats and scarfs again if your heading out and about around town Friday Night.

Then it gets tricky. We're watching a disturbance round this trough and pull out of the Texarkana area. Moving east we should be on the northern fringe of this system, kind of similar to what we saw last weekend. However, just like last weekend the cold air will be in place. The freezing line aloft will be in Nashville which is about an hour south of here. So snow and sleet could develop during the very early morning hours Saturday. There is a lot of energy and moisture with this system and the possibility exists for several inches of snow Saturday. Right now I'll go with 1 to 3 inches. But the GFS (Global Forecast System) prints out about 3 to 6 inches mixed with sleet. I'm not ready to that route yet as we still are about 72 hours away. But it is definitely something that needs to be watched. I would like to see a couple more computer model runs before I make a call on anticipated snowfall. So for now just keep the possibility of snow in the back of your mind if you have weekend plans.

Evening Update 2/14/06

2006-02-14T17:34:00.000-08:00

Just about every form of weather that you can possibly think of is going to transpire this week across the lower 48. Everything from spring like warmth and sunshine to brutally arctic cold air and snow. Here is Southcentral Kentucky we're going to get a little piece of all of this.

The pattern that has setup goes as such. A trough has developed through the northern plains states. It's here where some of the coldest air we've seen in years continues to marinate and is getting ready to make it's move to the east. Out ahead of this trough is a ridge in the eastern portions of the United States. This is where the very warm air is located. The kicker is an area of low pressure pulling out of the four corners states. This low will pull out of the front range of the rockies and swing to our north by Thursday. Out ahead of it's trailing cold front temperatures will soar all the way up into the mid 60's here in Southcentral Kentucky. But behind this front temperatures are some 25 to 35 degrees colder and in some cases even colder than that. This front will push through during the wee morning hours on Friday and bring with it a round of rain and possibly some thunderstorms. The latest computer model information suggests anywhere from a half to three quarters of an inch of rain out of this system. Then the colder air moves in. Luckily for us all of the moisture will be out of here by then and we won't have to deal with any wintry type precipitation.
But then comes the BIG question mark with this entire forecast. The GFS (Global Forecast System) continues to show an area of moisture to our south for Friday Night into Saturday morning. This is what we call overrunning moisture. Right now according to the GFS we will be on the northern fringe of this system, however, just far enough south that we could pick up some of it in the from of snow. How much? That all depends on just exactly how far north this precipitation shield makes it. It's going to be a close call here. Right now the model shows that the heaviest stays to our south in through Nashville and most of Tennessee. But this is still quite some time away so it is still a developing situation and needs to be watched.

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LATEST FORECAST MODEL INFORMATION

SHORT TERM (Days 1-3)
----------------------------------------
THE NAM (North Atlantic Mesoscale)
----------------------------------------
The NAM shows a warm front continuing to pass by to our north over the next 24 hours. Along it a few scattered showers will break out but most of them will stay to our north and to our west. It will produce a lot more in the way of cloud cover though for the next couple of days. Ridging will continue over the next 48 hours blasting temps up big time. The 850's (temps at 5,000ft) are around 14 degrees by 1pm Thursday. That's equivalent to low 60's down at the surface.
The NAM keeps us dry for the most part through Thursday but then swings a very powerful cold front through here early Friday morning (4am). There is some surface instability as well that could produce a few thunderstorms. Rainfall amounts between one half and three quarters of an inch. Things should dry out by 9am or 10am Friday. Then it turns very cold for the weekend.

-----------------------------------------
THE AIR FORCE MM5
-----------------------------------------
The Air Force MM5 sees a lot more in the way of moisture building to our west Thursday morning with that warm front and some of it could actually move into the western parts of the viewing area. Areas west of Bowling Green including Paducah and Owensboro could actually see a few showers during the morning hours Thursday. This moisture pulls away by midday and the remainder of the afternoon looks dry. Then the front begins to approach from the west towards midnight. The timing of this front is a little faster than what the NAM is showing by about 6 to 8 hours of so. The MM5 pushes the front through by 1am Friday Night and has it clearing the area by 4am. Rainfall amounts around three quarters of an inch. Turns colder for the weekend.

Touch Of Spring Update 2/13/06

2006-02-13T19:46:00.000-08:00

That's right! You heard it correctly, get set for a touch of spring starting tomorrow as we'll see temperatures climb up into the mid 50's. But do not, I repeat DO NOT get use to it because it's not going to last long. As we're basking in the sunshine tomorrow afternoon some of the coldest air of the season so far will start to bleed it's way down from Canada and invade the northern plains. Not only is this the coldest air of the season so far, it's actually the coldest air that we've seen in the lower 48 this late in the season in quite some time. Typically February is a cold month, this is true. But it's the month more known for snow rather than bruatal cold air. The really brutally cold stuff usually smacks us in the mouth in January. So this is certainly not unheard of but it is a little unusual.
Now here we go with the middle of the week. Temperatures out ahead of a cold front will soar all the way up to 63 degrees for Wednesday and if that's not warm enough for you how's 65 sound for Thursday. You want more? Well your not going to get it! It turns sharply colder Thursday Night into Friday when the cold front blasts through here. Parts of the viewing area are going to see anywhere from a 20 to 30 degree drop in an hours time maybe two. That's a cold shot to the system for you. Then the weekend turns even colder than that!
The overall pattern continues to flip flop. This past weekend the trough was in the east, that's what brought all of that cold air down from Canada and created the Blizzard of '06 for the Mid Atlantic and New England. Now, that trough has moved off the coast and the jetstream has begun to flatten out in the east. That will allow very warm air to move in from the southwest jacking temps up into the 60's across a good portion of the south. But at the same time a new trough begins to dig in the west. That's where the brutally cold air will strike first. Eventually this trough swings east bringing all of that cold air with it across the country. So what's going to feel like spring for several days around here will turn to winter in the blink of an eye by the end of the week.
I'm not going to get too in depth with a forecast model discussion this evening because surprisingly enough both the NAM (North Atlantic Mesoscale) and the GFS (Global Forecast System) are pretty much agreeing with timing and precip amounts. Both forecast models show about a half to three quarters of an inch of rain with the front. Both models swing the front through Southcentral Kentucky very early Friday Morning and both show sharply colder air for the weekend.

Evening Update 2/12/06

2006-02-12T16:10:00.000-08:00

The pattern is getting ready to shift once again this week. The trough that has set up in the east and kept us very wintry over the past four or five days will push off the east coast. This will allow another trough to develop, but this time the trough will be in the western states. The coldest air of the season will invade the northern plains and the rockies by mid week.

Short term concerns........None

Long term concerns..........watching a possible icing situation by the end of the week. Moisture will overrun very cold surface air to our north. That cold air will try to sneak it's way down here by Friday. Things could get very interesting around here.

LATEST COMPUTER MODEL INFORMATION

Short Term (Days 1-3)
------------------------
THE NAM
------------------------
The NAM (North Atlantic Mesoscale) has been absolutely horrible this year so far up until the very last minute with an approaching event. So I take what it says with a grain of salt anymore. All I really see for the immediate future with this model is a warmup coming as the pattern begins to flatten itself out.
Going out a little bit further (hr84 7pm Wednesday) the NAM does show a pretty significant stationary front to our north. The air is ver cold to the north of it and mild to the south. Overruning moisture and an area of low pressure look to ride along it but stays to our north, at least through this timeframe. So all in all the NAM for the next couple of days is quiet.

------------------------
THE MM5
------------------------
The Air Force MM5 also shows a very quiet pattern in the short term. Nothing too terribly different from what the NAM is showing except for temperatures. The MM5 looks like it wants to bring that colder air into Southcentral Kentucky much earlier than the NAM (Wednesday Night). That's something we'll have to keep our eyes on. Precipitation wise the MM5 doesn't even see the mid week system that the NAM is looking at and keeps the entire Ohio Valley and the Great Lakes States dry through the timeframe. Again, the NAM has been out to lunch this year so far.

LONG TERM MODELS

------------------------
THE GFS
------------------------
The GFS (Global Forecast System) has been money so far this year. It's nailed several storms so far this winter. Although it did go a little moisture crazy at first with this past Friday's snow event. Other than that is faired pretty well. Short term the GFS kind of agrees with the NAM and keeps the cold air well north of Southcentral Kentucky through the end of the week. It does show some moisture starting to build in the central plains by the middle of the week. This is actually in association with a developing warm front. A fairly potent storm system comes racing out of the Colorado rockies and swings across the northern plains into the Great Lakes. The contrast in temperatures between the very cold air to the north and the very warm air to the south will continue to help fuel this system as it rides along the jetstream across the country. By the end of the week we'll start to feel the effects of this system as well as moisture associated with it's trailing cold front will push through Friday Night into Saturday morning. The typically moisture heavy GFS prints out about three quarters of an inch. No real arctic air falls in behind it. It will turn cooler not colder behind this front. At least that's the thinking with the GFS as of right now.

Summary...............The big story this week will be the MUCH warmer air that will be making it's way into Southcentral Kentucky. A very spring-like pattern will once again move in very similar to what we experienced in January. Highs by the middle of the week could top out in the mid 60's. My only real concern at this time is how quickly that colder air makes it's way in here by the end of the week. If it gets in here a little bit quicker than what the forecast models are showing right now than we could have a tricky forecast that could involve icing. We'll continue to wait and see. If it holds back than the forecast will pretty much be in line as to what the thinking is at this time. For now.....say goodbye to all of the snow and cold and hello to sunshine and warmth!

Storm Tracking Further South....Morning Update 2/10/06

2006-02-10T09:56:00.000-08:00

The big question with this entire event has been and continues to be just exactly where does this low pressure pulling out of Texas track. A more northern track would put Southcentral Kentucky in the heavier snowbands. A track further to the south would keep the heaviest snows to our south. Last night the NAM and the GFS both begen to back down a little bit suggesting that the heaviest of the snow will stay just to our south. I backed down slightly on snow accumulations last night as well, going from 3 to 5 inches earlier in the afternoon to 2 to 4 inches last night. This morning the National Weather Service has followed suit and dropped there accumulation numbers down to around 3 inches.
The center of circulation has developed and precipitation has begun to break out across a good deal of the Mississippi River Valley stretching northward up into Missouri and southern Illinois. Temperatures right now are in the mid to upper 30's which is well above the freezing mark. Therefore, the precipitation should begin as a period of light rain a little later on this afternoon before changing over to snow later this evening. A good coating to a half inch of snow can be expected by sunset.
Periods of snow through out the night tonight falling at varying intensities and lingering into the early morning hours tomorrow. Total snow accumulations when all is said and done will range from 2 to 3 inches with the heaviest amounts generally south of Bowling Green around the Kentucky/Tennessee border.
The storm continues to pull away Saturday afternoon and begins to jog up the east coast. But lots of clouds will continue to dominate the skies with scattered snow showers during the afternoon. Temperatures will only top out in the low 30's tomorrow for highs and only slightly higher than that for Sunday so whatever snow falls tonight will stick around for a couple of days.
Now that we're within 24 hours of the beginning of this event the forecast models become extremely accurate. So at this point 2 to 3 inches of snow is more than likely a lock here in Bowling Green. But again, we'll continue to wait and see. Nothing is EVER etched in stone when it comes to the weather department. We'll update later this evening.

Weekend Getting Interesting.....Update 2/8/06

2006-02-08T18:10:00.000-08:00

Turning colder now that this evening's clipper system has swung through. We picked up any where from a coating to a half inch of snow in most locations. Most roads are mainly wet, however, bridges and overpasses could be a little slick later this evening as the temperatures continue to fall.

Short Term Concerns.......watching another chance for snow Friday evening into early Saturday morning. This one will have more moisture to work with than the one that just passed by this evening.

Long Term Concerns.......the arctic invasion by mid-week. Looks like we're getting ready to pay big time for all of that unseasonably warm air that we saw in January.

LATEST COMPUTER MODEL INFORMATION

SHORT TERM (Days 1-3)
-----------------------------
THE MM5
-----------------------------
The Air Force MM5 shows a storm system developing over eastern Texas by early Friday morning. At the same time a cold front will be passing us by to our north bringing with it a few snow showers to Louisville and Lexington. It may get as far south as Bowling Green and Elizabethtown but for the most part this should stay to our north. The southern storm really starts to get cranking by Friday Night with moisture surging northward all the way into Nashville by 8:00 or 9:00pm. By early Saturday morning the low sits just southwest of Tallahassee, Florida. Bowling Green looks to be sitting on the extreme southern fringe of this storm sytem by that time. The 850's (temps at 5,500 ft.) are well below freezing at this time so the moisture will be falling as snow. Starts to pull away from us and up the east coast by early Saturday afternoon. Accumulations of around an inch or two by Saturday morning.

-----------------------
THE NAM
-----------------------
The heavily relied upon NAM has been very late in picking up moisture with approaching systems so far this winter. Yesterday at this same time the extracted site didn't even see this storm. Even this morning, the 12z run remained dry. However, tonight the 00z run has started to see some of the moisture. About .15 of an inch to be exact. This would be the equivalent to about an inch and a half of snow. But again as I've mentioned earlier this is a very close call here. A 50 mile shift in the track in either direction could mean the difference between 2 or 3 inches of snow on the ground by Saturday morning or just a few flurries. The NAM tracks this storm even further south then the MM5 putting us on the extreme northern fringe of things right now. But as I just mentioned the NAM has been really bad with storm placement over the past month now so I'm kind of hesitant with this run.

LONG TERM MODELS

------------------------
THE GFS
------------------------
The GFS (Global Forecast System) is doing exactly what it's been doing all season long and that's playing up a big storm for the weekend. It's hit on a few of them across the country so far this season but missed badly on others. So with that said read this paragraph with extreme caution!!!!!
Upper level energy diving out of the southern Rockies will transport itself to a surface storm that will develop over central Texas by mid morning Friday morning. What's impressive is how quickly this thing wants to develop. By Friday evening (7:00pm) precipitation has already spread as far north as central Kentucky. The zero degree line (freezing line) on the 850's drops all the way down into southern Tennessee at this point so it is certainly cold enough to support snow here. Snow will fall at varying rates during the overnight Friday Night as the actual low itslef travels well far to our south. Eventually the snow shuts off by midday Saturday as this entire system then begins pull northeast. Cold air barrells down from the north behind this developing nor'easter. Total snow accumulations anticipated on the GFS.....3 to 5 inches.

Summary........You know this is exactly what I get. If you read some of my blogs from earlier this week I had mentioned the possibility of a snow event for the weekend. I also told you last week that the overall pattern across the country is in the process of changing. When this happens the forecast models have a hard time adjusting and often times loose a storm after a day or so only to find it again a couple of days before hand. So what happens......the models just as anticipated lost the storm over the past couple of days and I just about dropped it from my forecast only to see it reemerge this evening.
This one has the potential to drop several inches of snow on the ground by Saturday morning. The big question with this is going to be the exact track of that low. The further north it tracks the better the chance we have of seeing accumulating snow. The further south it tracks before it makes the journey up the east coast the less of a chance we have of seeing accumulating snow here in Southcentral Kentucky. Right now it's a very close call. I like the fact that all of the forecast models see it, including the short range MM5 and NAM. This tells me that it's not a question of whether or not it develops. That's a given. Again, it's going to be the exact track that makes of breaks this forecast. So for right now we'll go with increasing clouds on Friday with a chance of light snow during the evening hours. Then cloudy and cold Friday Night with that same chance of some snow.

------------------ TROUBLE BREWING FOR THE NORTHEAST -----------------------------
This could be the big one of '06. The potential exists for a major noreaster to pound the Mid Atlantic and New England by Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning. Everything with this storm depends on something called Phasing. Phasing is a term that is used when the northern and southern branches of the jetstream in a split flow situation merge and combine forces. Often times it will be the engery from the northern branch combining with the moisture from the southern branch to develop a major storm. That just so happens to be the case this time around as well.
There are two possible scenario's with this thing. The first one's a miss, the second one's a direct hit. So first let's get into the miss scenario which right now is slightly favored about 60 / 40 over the hit. The miss scenario suggests that the northern branch of the jetstream which dives right through the extreme southern portion of the Ohio Valley and off the North Carolina coast never phases with the southern branch. The moisture associated with the southern branch rides along the Gulf Coast, across the Florida penninsula and out to sea never linking up with the piece of energy that rides along the northern branch during this same timeframe. What's that mean for the northeast. NO PHASING !!!! So break out the suntan lotion and the beach chairs!!!! Well, not exactly. But the weekend wouldn't be all that bad if this were to pan out. It will be cold but not white.
The next scenario is the direct hit scenario. Some of the forecast models say the two branches of the jetstream do infact phase together developing a monster storm for the beginning of the weekend. The GFS takes this southern storm and moves it along the sothern portion of the United States right up to about Atlanta Georgia and then off the coast of the Carolinas. Then this storm just bottoms out and explodes riding right up the coast producing a classic noreaster situation. White out conditions, strong gale force winds and bitterly cold air begin to develop around this storm by Saturday Night. By the time this thing makes it off the coast of Maine the damage is done dropping anywhere from 7 to 14 inches of snow across the Megalopolis from Baltimore to Boston with isolated heavier amounts.
I actually like this scenario MUCH better right now because of the position of the high off the southern coast of the United States. It flattens itself out by this weekend but never truley breaks down. I think this high will be just enough to push this storm up the coast. At least for the Mid Atlantic. I would say from Virginia Beach to New York City it's just about a lock that you see accumulating snow out of this event. The further north you go the chances begin to go down only because the some of the thinking is that this storm may not hug the coastline. We'll update tomorrow evening.

Turning Colder! ...... Update 2/7/06

2006-02-07T15:13:00.000-08:00

We enjoyed yesterday's weather so much that we infact did it all over again today. Today's almanac was exactly the same as yesterday's. Same high of 46, same low of 23 and the same normals. But colder air is on the way down from Canada and the system is already evident on this evening's radar. A weak disturbance on the back end of a cold front will swing through here during the afternoon hours tomorrow bringing with it the possibility of a few snow flurries.

Short term concerns....... there really aren't any immediate concerns within the next 48 hours. Again, maybe a few flurries tomorrow evening. Turning colder!

Long term concerns....... the long term is becoming rather interesting now. Still watching a strong cold front for the weekend and a few snow showers. But now we're also watching for a serious cold shot by the middle of next week. Looks like the mother load of arctic air may finally spill down into the lower 48 states.

LATEST COMPTER MODEL INFORMATION

SHORT TERM (Days 1-3)
---------------------------
THE MM5
---------------------------
The Air Force MM5 does show a little more in the way of moisture with tomorrow's disturbance than any of the other short range computer models. The system looks like it's situated a little further east now than last night's run. This will put the extreme western part of our viewing area in the bulls eye for a period of snow flurry activity. Turns colder!

---------------------------
THE NAM
---------------------------
The heavily relied upon NAM (North Atlantic Mesoscale) finally prints out a little bit of moisture for tomorrow evening. The extracted site prints out .13 total which would be the equivalent to about an inch of snow. We won't see that much here though. Some of this moisture will be wasted because it will begin as drizzle and most of the rest will melt because surface temps will be too warm early in the day. A coating is definitely possible though by sunset. Oh my! Do things turn sharply colder by tomorrow night when low temperatures will crash all the way down into the teens. Doesn't get too much warmer for Thursday either. Extracted site showing a high of 33 degrees. Because of sunshine and the angle of the sun we'll tack on a few extra degrees to that and go with a balmy 36 degrees now for Thursday. Warming back up slightly for Friday before the next arctic invasion moves in for the weekend!

LONG TERM MODELS

----------------------
THE GFS
----------------------
The GFS (Global Forecast System) is looking at a Big.. bIg.. biG.. BIG time cold blast for the end of next week. Winter's back on the attack!!! That's going to be the saying around here for a while. Until then not too much action. As is the case with most of the other forecast models the GFS does see the big chill for this weekend as well with highs back down in the 30's.
Then things get very interesting. A huge area of high pressure will set up around the Gulf of Alaska. This will create a blocking pattern that is very typical for this time of the year, one that has been eluding us all winter long. The clockiwse winds around this high will pull the arctic air down from the northern territories of Canada shifting the polar vortex further to the south into the northern Great Lakes states. This all spells COLD for next week! It will first visit the northern plains states and the northern Rockies. Then as the Polor Vortex shifts that cold air will march east across the Central Plains and Great Lakes by the end of the week. So we'll turn sharply colder by next Friday. The big question right now is just exactly how much cold air makes it down here. Curent temperatures in Alaska are in the negative 20's and 30's right now. Ouch!!!! That'll smack ya!

Summary..........Were going to get a little bit of snow in here for tomorrow evening. Shouldn't be too much, maybe a coating at best. Other than that we're talking about a pattern that will repeat itself at least until the beginning of next week. That pattern is cold and blustery one day, somewhat milder the next, then turning colder and blustery again the day after that. We'll updat again tomorrow evening.

Winter Back On The Attack...Update 2/6/06

2006-02-06T13:56:00.000-08:00

Cold air looks to make it's move this weekend. Although because of the lack of snow cover to our north this air will moderate slightly before it arrives due to friction. Even still, high temperatures will only be in the upper 30's.

Short Term Concerns.....The pattern in itself is really quiet for this time of the year. We are watching for the possibility of some flurries for Wednesday with a cold front. Other than that, no real organized areas of precipitation to talk about.

Long Term Concerns.....Continue to be how much of this bitter cold air makes it down into the lower 48 and could we see a winter storm for the beginning of next week?

LATEST COMPUTER MODEL INFORMATION

SHORT TERM (Days 1-3)
---------------------
THE MM5
---------------------
The Air Force MM5 doesn't show too much of anything out there in the next couple of days. Let's start things off with the upper levels this evening. A well defined trough has now set up shop from the Mississippi River east bound to the east coast (Clearly defined by looking at the 500mb levels). This is some of the coolest air that we've seen consistently now since December. A reinforcing shot of colder air will swing through in the form of a cold front late in the day on Wednesday. The MM5 does show some flurries associated with this front. However, they will be very scattered and very light.
By Thursday a strong high (1040 mb) has pushed it's way down into the Central Plains states. A very cold northwesterly wind will keep temperatures in the mid to upper 30's. This high will begin to flatten out as we head into Friday allowing for somewhat milder air to move in on Friday. Temperatures may only climb into the low 40's on Friday but it will not be as harsh. Another cold front though approaches from the northwest by this weekend. This will allow those cold harse wind chills to return for Saturday Night.
So all in all a very quiet pattern this week according to the MM5 with reinforcing shots of cold air by the end of the week.

---------------------------
THE NAM
---------------------------
The NAM isn't as moisture happy as the MM5 with the flurry activity Wednesday evening. It also keeps this disturbance further to our west near Paducah. The extracted site remains dry through the period suggesting just a few flurries at best! Temperatures will warm up for tomorrow and early in the day on Wednesday as the pattern retreats slightly. Then a strong cold front will push through bringing with it another round of cold air for Thursday. We warm up slightly again for Friday out ahead of the next cold front that cools us back off for the weekend. So it's a temperature rollercoaster here in Southcentral Kentucky for this upcoming week.

LONG TERM MODELS
------------------------
THE GFS
------------------------
The GFS fits the saying perfectly.....winter's back on the attack! In the short term the GFS shows a little bit more in the way of moisture with Wednesday evening's event. Looks more like a period of light snow rather than just flurries as the MM5 and the NAM are suggesting. One thing to keep in mind though is that's one of the flaws of the GFS is that it is usually too wet.
Long term shows a very cold weekend coming up here in Southcentral Kentucky. The 850's (temps at 5,500ft.) drop all the way down to -15 degrees by early Sunday morning. That's some pretty cold stuff around here (teens for surface temps). The good news is moisture is limited with this model. It does show very light and scattered activity through out the weekend with a couple of clipper systems that brush us by to the north. But other than that, there's no real organized areas of precipitation. Yesterday the GFS showed a big storm developing for the beginning of next week. Tonight that storm stays much further south around the Texas coast.
So COLD, COLD, COLD is the flavor for this model this evening with a few snow showers Wednesday afternoon.

---------------------------
The European
---------------------------
The European stays quite active through the period. Storm systems keep moving along with this model. Reinforcing shots of cold air rush down from Canada it seems every other day. The first shot comes on Thursday as a very large area of high pressure drops down from Canada. The high then flattens out and pushes south only to be replaced by another one for the weekend. Then a third one looks to move in for the beginning of next week. At the same time weak clipper systems push by to our north into the Great Lakes. So as is the case with the GFS, the long range shows a cold 7 to 10 days coming up here in Southcentral Kentucky with slight warmups every few days. No organized areas of precipitation to mention.

Summary.........Cold! Winter finally has decided to show itself after an extremely warm month of January. However, quite honestly the weather looks a little boring for the next good week or so thanks to the jetstream dropping down into the deep south. So with the exception of a few flurries Wednesday evening and possibly a snow shower or two this weekend there really isn't all that much to talk about.

NAO going negative Update 2/6/06

2006-02-05T21:41:00.000-08:00

Things looking very quiet in the short term. Possible BIG storm on the horizon next week though with a reinforcing shot of bitterly cold air behind it.

Again, it's understanding the weather pattern here. For the entire month of January we were in a zonal flow (west to east). What this did was trap the arctic air up in Canada and stretched very warm air from the Pacific all the way from California to the east coast. Thanks to the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) going negative we are now starting to finally see a change in the pattern. The jetstream is now oriented in a more north / south fashion. This has opened the door to the north and allowed that arctic air to start to move into the lower 48. Looking at long term patterns the NAO looks like it wants to stay negative at least through the middle of the month. This will be our best shot at seeing more winter type conditions. Not only in terms of cold air but snowfall as well.

Going to skip over short term models this evening as there is not that much to discuss.

LONG TERM FORECAST MODELS
-----------------------
THE MRF
-----------------------
The MRF sees a huge snow storm across the entrie Ohio Valley and Northeast next Tuesday. What looks to happen here is something called Phasing. The northern branch of the jetstream has dove far to the south. Perhaps the furthest south that it's been all season long. This has surpressed the southern branch of the jetstream well far to the south across the Gulf Of Mexico. So far south that it's not even visible now on the satelite pictures. This may change next week. The northern branch will hold it's ground and stay in place but the southern branch may try to push it's way back up to the north. At the same time an intense piece of energy looks to ride along it and join forces with a disturbance to the north that is pushing southward. They combine near Dallas, Texas and push northeast. With cold air in place and a lot of over-running moisture snow could fall at quite a good clip. This is something that we will have to continue to watch and wait to see if it develops. You snow lovers may get a big one out of this. Looks like 5 to 8 inches right now.

-------------------------
The GFS
-------------------------
The GFS (Global Forecast System) picks up on this as well. Although the northern piece of energy is not nearly as strong. The trough is not as deep at the time either. One thing to note though is the air is very cold behind this storm. If it does in fact develop we could be talking about highs in the upper 20's for a couple of days afterwards with blustery wind chills. The setup for this looks very similar to what was described with the MRF. So I won't get into too much more detail with this forecast model.

------------------------
The European
------------------------
The European shows nothing of the sort. A very frigid, arctic high pressure (1046 millibars)drops down from Canada by the beginning of this weekend. We will remain on the cold side of this high. This would be the coldest air of the season thus far to move into Southcentral Kentucky if this were to infact pan out. Highs up in the Dakotas will be close to or below zero. The high looks like it wants to sit and marinate for a while to our west. This model only goes out to 168 hours so I can't see if it develops next weeks storm yet. But looking at the few frames before it I would say no because the high is too strong and the northern branch of the jetstream is too far to the south.

Summary.... Short term is a piece of cake here in Southcentral Kentucky. Below normal temperatures will dominate the forecast at least through the middle of the week. The good news is it will stay quiet. A disturbance drops down for Friday, not sure right now how warm temps will get out ahead of it before it swings through. Once it does swing through we'll go back into the deep freeze. This upcoming weekend looks to be very cold. Watching a storm for the beginning of next week. Could be a big one, but it's a long ways out. Look for another update tomorrow evening.

Forecast models continue to flip flop. Update 2/2/06

2006-02-02T15:23:00.000-08:00

I was almost completely ready to throw in the towell last night with this weekend's storm sytem. Almost every model pushed the storm too far off to our east. That included the GFS and the MM5. The NAM was the only one that at least brought the storm up the Appalachians. Today, they ALL bring the storm up the Appalachains. It's like a game of chess.....placement is key!!

Short Term Concerns.....continue to be the development of this secondary storm system to our south. Could we see rain changing to snow? Or does this storm miss us altogether to our east.

Long Term Concerns......regarless of whether or not we see this storm much colder air moves in behind it. The NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) continue to go negative allowing winter's return for next week!

***** This is not a forecast, it's an explaination of what the latest computer model information is showing *****

LATEST COMPUTER MODELS

SHORT TERM
--------------------------
THE NAM
--------------------------
The latest run (00z) on the NAM shows some snow falling across Southcentral Kentucky early Saturday morning. Were gettingto within 36 hours now and the NAM is extremely accurate within this stage of the game. So looking at the latest extracted I'd have to say this looks like a good bet now. The extracted site prints out .20 30hr (1amSat) of liquid and .11 36hr (7am Sat). So the model is showing about .31 of an inch of liquid total with this system which is not significant by any means. The 850's (temps at 5,500 ft.) are too warm to support snow inthe beginning so this means that the precipitation will begin as rain close to midnight. The 850's then go well below freezing after midnight Friday Night. So the next time slot showing .11 of liquid will fall in the form of snow. So looks like the NAM is showing rain developing late Friday night towards midnight changing to light snow overnight. Even though the model is printing out a little more than an inch of snow temperatures have been in the 50's over the past few days. Expect a lot of this to melt. Maybe a coating on grassy surfaces.

------------------------------
THE MM5
------------------------------
The MM5 sees a different story than the NAM. The storm pulls up the eastern side of the Appalachains just missing us to the east. Looks like it stays just too far away for us to see anything out of it. The big difference with this model is where the low actually develops. The MM5 develops the low near Atlanta Georgia which is much further northeast than what the NAM shows. Because this system is rounding a deep trough it has no where to go except north, northeast. Bowling Green lies well west of Atlanta hence we stay dry according to this model.

LONG TERM MODELS

----------------------------
THE GFS
----------------------------
The GFS has gone back to some of it's original thinking now and plots the storm much closer to us than it had been over the past few runs. It shows a strengthening storm moving up the east coast. The moisture shield looks to be thrown back as far west as Paducah for a time before it begins to pull away. Isobars really tighten up as we move along through the day on Saturday. This shows very strong gusty winds developing. Colder air moving in for the weekend. That pattern persists through next week.

-----------------------------
THE EUROPEAN
-----------------------------
The European's kind of quiet as it drops a huge area of high pressure (1038 millibars) into the lower 48. This will make it rather cold around here at least through the middle of next week. The high looks like it then wants to shift further south into Texas allowing a westerly breeze to warm us up a tad by next Thursday. But a powerful cold front is right behind it with even colder air from Canada. So if it does warm up slightly by the middle of next week it won't last long.

Summary
I guess to sum it up I would say that this wonderfully warm air that we've been dealing with over the past month is about to come to screeching halt! Looks like we will see some snow around here early Saturday morning. Shouldn't be too much as long as that storm stays on it's current track. A 50 mile shift to the west however, could mean a very wintry Saturday around here. Stay tuned to NBC40 for the very latest updates.

You snow lovers will have to wait... Update 2/1/06

2006-02-01T20:22:00.000-08:00

The pieces of the puzzle continue to come together now as we get closer to this weekend. The picture....not a good one if your a snow lover. The NAM shows a monster but it's too far off to the east. Could be a powerful noreaster though for New England.

The main challenge with the short term will be rain totals for tomorrow. The NAM on the extracted site (00z) prints out right around a half inch of rain. Yesterday at this same time it showed about .80, so totals are down a little bit. The radar at 10:30 (Wednesday Evening) really starting to light up now. Tornado watches are in effect along the Gulf Coast from Texas to Louisianna.
Long term challenge will obviously be the track with this weekend's storm and how deep the trough digs next week. That will determine how far south that cold arctic air makes it. Will winter actually arrive?!

LATEST COMPUTER MODELS

SHORT TERM (Days 1-3)

-------------------------
THE NAM
-------------------------
The North Atlantic Mesoscale (NAM) really plays up the major storm role for the weekend. If this model sees it correctly the northeast will get blasted with heavy rains, strong gusty winds and heavy inland snows. As for us here in Southcentral Kentucky it looks like a miss to our east but it's a very close call.
First, lets deal with Thursday's rain event. The morning commute should for the most part stay dry. The rain begins to move in around 10:00 am and picks up in intensity rather quickly. There will be a two to three hour period starting sometime around 1 or 2 pm where the rain will come down pretty heavily. Then it looks to begin to pull out during the late evening hours and should shut off completely shortly after midnight.
That sets the stage for round number two that will develop right around the Georgia/Alabama border. Rounding a deep trough this storm will turn north and up the east coast. It will be far enough inland to keep the major cities of the northeast mainly rain and far enough to our east to keep us dry. Colder air will move in along the northwestern side. Saturday's highs will top out in the low 40's.
So no big storm for us according to this model but it's still a close enough call that I will at least keep the chance of a snow shower in the forecast for early Saturday.

-----------------------
THE MM5
-----------------------
The Air Force MM5 also sees a descent shot of rain in here for tomorrow. The start time is much later though. Looks like it wants to begin right around 2:00 or 3:00pm. This is interesting because looking at the latest radar the rain matches up pretty well with what the MM5 is showing. So this model may be on to something here. Estimated rainfall totals are a little bit less than what the NAM is showing, but still descent at about .30 of an inch.
Weekend storm looks less organized on the MM5 than on the NAM but the placement matches up well. A big trough digs all the way down to the Gulf Coast where 850's (temps at 5,500ft.)crash through the Ohio and Mississippi Valley's behind this storm. So as was the case with the NAM the MM5 sees much colder air for the weekend as well.
So the storms a miss on this model as well. A sloppy thursday afternoon will turn into a pleasant Friday.

LONG TERM

----------------------------
THE GFS
----------------------------
The GFS (Global Forecast System) doesn't do as much with a major storm in the northeast as the short term models but it does show much colder air moving in for next week. MUCH COLDER!!! It looks like the Polar Vortex which is currently located over the Hudson Bay up in Canada will shift down to the south into the northern Great Lakes States. At the same time high pressure will set up shop along the west coast and dry them out. The result......cold air will be funneled down from the northern territories of Canada and drop all the way down to the deep south by the middle of next week. WINTER RETURNS !!!!!!!

-----------------------------
THE EUROPEAN
-----------------------------
The European model is lost I think. Normally a very accurate 72 hour model, it shows a very poorly defined trough in the east for next week. It wants to continue to play the Pacific zonal flow (west to east) which would continue to keep things mild through next week. Although possible.... it is heavily out numbered by the other computer models at this time. Still, we'll have to wait and see. So according to this next week stays mild. Although something interesting has caught my attention with the latest run and that's the strength of Monday's storm. The low rapidly deepens as it pulls east out of the central plains. Interesting!!! There is cold enough air to support a little bit of snow on Monday before things warm up again by Tuesday. Not ready to even think about this yet until this weekend's system pans out.

Summary...............
It looks like we're going to dodge a bullet here with this weekend's storm. It should stay off to our east. Turning colder for the weekend with highs only in the upper 30's for Sunday. But it looks like it should stay dry now. There's a lot of cold air up in Canada right now just lurking around waiting to make it's move. The big question is will next week be the week when it does make it's move?????

Models Still Not Agreeing 1/31/06

2006-01-31T15:16:00.000-08:00

Another day closer and still much uncertainty!! Last night's 00z run on the GFS continued to hammer away at the idea of a major storm system for Friday Night into Saturday. Backed by the European the main question for this storm was where will it track? This morning's 12z run on the GFS and the European completely loose the storm altogether now. So we continue to see the computer models flip flop back and fourth with this storm.
The NAM is now showing a solid rain event in here for Thursday. The extracted site is now printing out almost an inch of rain. So what looked to be just a few showers a couple of days ago for Thursday now could end of being a rather damp and miserable day across Southcentral Kentucky.

LATEST COMPUTER MODELS

SHORT TERM (Days 1-3)
-----------------------------
THE MM5
-----------------------------
The Air Force MM5 plays it very conservative for Thursday. It develops the low much further to the south than the NAM (near Chorpus Christi, Tx). Through tomorrow the low hugs the Gulf Coast and then slowly pulls off to the northeast during the day on Thursday. Most of the heavier precipitation stays well off to our east with this model as it never really makes it into Southcentral Kentucky. Looks like cloudy skies for Thursday with a possible shower.
The MM5 is just now starting to get into range with this weekend's event. It does pick it up! It develops this weekends low near Texarkana. One interesting note with this latest model run is the cold air aloft is in place already as this storm develops. The 850's (temps at 5,500ft.) are below freezing already at hour 72 (1pm Friday). The moisture looks to move in here after midnight Friday Night. Very interesting! This could be hinting towards a mostly snow event here.

----------------------------
THE NAM
----------------------------
The NAM (North Atlantic Mesoscale) shows a decent amount of moisture with Thursday's low. The storm definitely wants to tap into the Gulf Of Mexico. But it looks like the heaviest rains will stay to our south with this one.
Then we get into this weekend's storm. The heavily relied upon NAM sees it developing across extreme northeastern Texas. It rapidly intensifies and begins to move east. It looks like this storm then gets picked up within the trough and pushes up the Appalachain Mountains. According to this it's a miss to the east, but it's very very close. Another interesting thing with the NAM is that the cold air is in place so the moisture that would fall would start as a little rain Friday Night and then quickly change to snow by early Saturday morning. The model only goes out 84 hours so we'll have to see what the 12z run says tomorrow.

LONG TERM MODELS

----------------------------
THE GFS
----------------------------
The GFS has lost this storm altogether now. It did this with last week's secondary storm as well. Oh and by the way, as I'm sure you all know last week's secondary storm never did get going around here. It developed just off to our southeast and hammered the Mid Atlantic earlier today. Coincidently the 12z run on the GFS wants to develop this weekend's storm further south and east now as well, through portions of extreme eastern Alabama and Georgia. It also doesn't really dig that trough down quite as far south now either. This would mean that colder air would stay locked up around the Canadian/U.S. border. Everything on this model just looks a little funny to me right now. Where the trough is setting up, positioning of lows, how intense they'll become? It all looks different. So I'm going to wait and see what the 00z run is saying before I lean in a certain direction.

----------------------------
The European
----------------------------
The European model seems to have kind of lost this storm as well. It also never digs that trough out in the east, sort of similar to what the GFS is saying. Thursday's still looking a little wet around here but the moisture quickly pushes off to the east. Now because that trough never digs there's no energy and no contrast in temperatures at the surface and aloft to develop this weekend's storm. So both the European and the GFS have backed off with this one. Again, I'll wait and see what the next run on the European is doing before I change anything.

Summary
Not ready to fold my cards with this storm yet. Although now that the GFS and the European have lost it, i've lost some confidence with it. The NAM and the MM5 (very accurate short range models) see it which is a good thing for all you snow lovers out there but it's still a little too far away for those models to really get a good handle on it. Tomorrow mornings 12z run is really going to determine a lot with this thing. For now we'll keep the chance of some rain Friday Night possibly changing over to snow Saturday morning before ending.

Getting Interesting!! 1/30/06

2006-01-30T17:48:00.000-08:00

Still much uncertainty with the longterm forecast, in particular this weekends storm system. Will we see an all rain event here in Southcentral Kentucky? Will we see accumulating snow on the backend of this storm? Will the much colder arctic air move in here by the beginning of next week? Those are just a few of the questions that need answering at this time. The models have now begun to shift this storm further south placing us in the cold sector of the storm for a longer duration of time.

LATEST COMPUTER MODELS

SHORT TERM (Days 1-3)
---------------------------
THE MM5
---------------------------
The Air Force MM5 continues to show a very tranquil pattern in the short term. The only real weather maker that this model sees at this point is a moisture starved cold front that will punch through Southcentral Kentucky Wednesday afternoon. The air behind this front is Pacific in origin so temperatures will remain very mild for this time of the year.

---------------------------
THE NAM
---------------------------
The always heavy relied upon NAM (North Atlantic Mesoscale) also shows a very tranquil pattern at least through Wednesday Night. Then a period of rain moves through during the day on Thursday with a small and unorganized southern disturbance. The extracted site prints out .23 of an inch so the rain will not be heavy. One interesting thing with the latest run on the NAM is that it can't seem to find this weekend's big storm. By hr84 (which is the furthest out this model goes) it still shows a quiet and dry pattern over the deep south. A very weak mini low (1004 mb) looks like it wants to start to devevop at this point over Houston Texas with much colder air pouring down from Canada. So my take with this model is that it wants to develop the storm for the second half of this upcoming weekend and into early next week.

LONG TERM MODELS

----------------------------
THE GFS
----------------------------
The GFS played up a huge storm last night for a good portion of the Mississippi River Valley and the Ohio Valley. This afternoon the 18z run shows a much weaker storm system placed much further south and east tracking it up the Appalachian Mountains instead of up through the Great Lakes States. This track places Southcentral Kentucky within the cold sector of the storm for a longer duration of time now. The 850's (temps at 5,500 ft.) drop to below freezing levels right away now. Looks like rain developing during the afternoon hours on Friday and quickly changing over to snow after midnight Friday Night. The GFS prints out about .56 of an inch of liquid (From hr108 - hr114 Saturday Morning) which would be the equivalent of 3 to 6 inches of snow. We'll wait and see what the 00z run says this evening for an update.

----------------------------
THE EUROPEAN
----------------------------
The European holds strong with it's thinking from yesterday. It positions the low just a little bit further south across extreme northern Texas and southern Oklahoma by hr96 (7am Friday). The track remains south of Bowling Green which would allow the storm system to rush colder air down from the north once it has passed us by to the east. Because the low develops further to the west the timing looks a little bit slower than what the GFS suggests. We'll push the precip off until late Friday evening close to midnight with this model and change it over to snow by early Saturday afternoon before it shuts off completely Saturday evening. So look for rain changing to snow with this model as well. Gusty winds are going to become an issue too. Accumulations by Saturday Night will be in the line of 1 to 3 inches.

----------------------------
THE UKMET
----------------------------
The UKMET continues to go out on it's own. All's quiet around here until hr120 (7pm Saturday) That's when a very weak system starts to develop around the Mississippi/Alabama border. Some rain looks to break out during the early afternoon Saturday. Not too sure where it wants to take this storm at that point because the model only goes out to 120 hours.

Summary
Things getting much more interesting now as we begin to get closer to the weekend. The European and the GFS both have started to track further south and east now putting Bowling Green in the cold sector of the storm for a longer duration of time. Both of these models are showing accumulating snow by Saturday. The wild card with this storm is now the NAM. The NAM has now gotten in to better range with the development stages of this system. The problem is it shows a much different pattern.

Evening Update 1/29/06

2006-01-29T16:53:00.000-08:00

Other than a few showers coming up tomorrow the forecast seems to be pretty simple this week. However, things get very complicated and very tricky as we move into the second half of Super Bowl weekend. The NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) continues to go negative. What this tends to do is develop troughs along the east coast. This in turn allows arctic air to drop down from Canada. The problem is the computer models have a very difficult time adjusting to a pattern change for a short while. So often times the positioning and strength of low pressure systems change from model run to model run until that particular model notices and understands the pattern change. So what may look like a major winter storm five days down the road today, may not even be there tomorrow. So that will be the main challenge over the next couple of days. Not so much with dealing with any major weather this week but dealing with a change in the pattern that could lead to huge changes next week.

***** Just a reminder this is not a forecast. This is me simply explaining to you what the latest computer models are saying and helping you understand what could happen. ******

LATEST COMPTER MODEL RUNS

SHORT TERM (Days 1-3)
----------------------------
THE NAM
----------------------------
The heavily relied upon NAM (North Atlantic Mesoscale) shows an area of low pressure developing just off to our east across extreme eastern Kentucky and West Virginia. This will bring a few showers in here tomorrow. The extracted site only prints out about .16 of an inch of liquid through an eight hour range. So as you can see this will be showery in activity. After that we dry out for Tuesday and then another system develops over Louisianna and moves northeast during the day on Wednesday. There's also a cold front approaching from the west. The combination of the two could bring us some rain for Wednesday Night.

----------------------------
THE MM5
----------------------------
The Air Force MM5 shows this same area of low pressure developing, but it develops it further south near Atlanta Georgia. As with the NAM we will be on the extreme western fringe of some showers for Monday. The MM5 rapidly intensifies this storm as it moves up into the Mid Atlantic States. This will help to pull some colder air in here from the north for Tuesday. Then by Wednesday afternoon a cold front approaches from the west and brings with it the chance of some more showers late in the day. The rain that the NAM picks up for Wednesday Night is still a little too far off right now to show on the MM5. The MM5 only goes out 72 hours.

LONG TERM COMPUTER MODELS
--------------------------
THE GFS
--------------------------
Here's where the fun begins! Since the MM5 and the NAM do a very good job with the short term let's take the GFS and start with this upcoming weekend. For two weeks now the GFS has shown a big time cool down for a good portion of the eastern United States. This colder air was to move in behind a major storm system that would develop around Super Bowl weekend. Now were only about a week away and the GFS still shows a major winter storm by Sunday February 5th. We'll start at hour 120 (1pm Friday, February 3rd) where an elongated area of low pressure is in the early stages of development. The Gulf Of Mexico is wide open. This is evident because of all the moisture that has already broke out across the gulf coast and the deep south. The 850's (Temperatures at 5,500ft.) are well above freezing for everyone at this point so everything that falls will fall in the form of liquid to start. The low begins to intensify by hour 126 as moisture surges north out ahead of it. By this time rain has made it's way into Bowling Green. By early Saturday morning this storm is becoming a monster. Not only is it starting to pull colder air down from the north but is has now begun to manufacture it's own cold air as well. This is evident by looking at the 850's for hour 132. If you look off to the northwest you can see a little sliver of below freezing temps starting to develop. This is a good indicator of a rapidly intensifying storm system. As we move into Saturday afternoon surface pressure has dropped off tremendously (990 mb) and the moisture field has intensified. Now, if you look at the 850's for ths same timeframe the entire west side of this storm is cold enough to support snow, and heavy snow it is at this time. The snow will be falling acoss Arkansas and Missouri, extreme western Tennessee and Illinois. The colder air looks like it has just moved into Paducah, Kentucky from the west which is about 2 hours away. So you can see the trend here, that colder air is pushing east closer to us as this storm moves north. By 1am Sunday morning Bowling Green has changed over to snow. Look at the 850's.... that colder air really starts to undercut the storm! The storm pulls away by early Sunday afternoon but the model is printing out .56 of an inch of liquid from 1am to 1pm Sunday. This represents a good 3 to 6 inch snow on the back end of this storm for us here in Bowling Green with very strong gusty winds developing. So we would start off as a soaking windswept rain here for Saturday that would change over to about an eight hour period of steady snow.

------------------------------
The European
------------------------------
The European shows a very similar storm to that of what the GFS shows. One major difference is that it doesn't pull the storm north into the Great Lakes, it pulls it northeast into the Mid Atlantic. This would put us on the cold side of this storm for a longer duration of time. Therfore possibly increasing snow amounts by Super Bowl Sunday.

Summary
Again, I can't stress this enough. This storm for the weekend is pretty far away at this point. So you kind of have to take what the models say with a grain of salt. For arguement sake let's just say that this storm does develop. Where it develops and how it tracks will determine everything here in Bowling Green. A further west development and track would mean an all rain event here. If it develops further east and tracks to our south and east we would see a longer duration of snow here. So it's going to be a tricky call. Again, this is a pattern change. So until the models grasp this idea and understand it the positioning of this storm may fluctuate greatly from run to run. One thing that does look pretty clear at this point is all of the models are picking up much colder air behind this storm. So by next week winter looks to return, not only to Bowling Green but for almost the entire eastern seaboard as well.

Evening Update 1/26/06

2006-01-26T18:07:00.000-08:00

Things getting a little more interesting now as we get closer to the weekend. Last night the GFS introduced the idea of a secondary storm system for Sunday night that could bring us some snow. Today, some of the other computer models have started to jump on the bandwagon as well. We know were going to get some rain in here Saturday night, that's a lock. The radar is already lighting up to our west from southern Texas to the Nebraska/Kansas border. The question is will this secondary storm develop and if it does where will it track. For that we look at some of the latest computer runs.........

-------------------------
The NAM
-------------------------
The NAM is just now starting to get into better range with this event. Saturday itself looks like it will stay dry around here with some showers moving in by 10pm that evening. The extracted site really downplays this, only printing out about .28 of an inch of rain with the majority of that coming around 3 o'clock early Sunday morning. The 850's (temps at 5,500 ft.) are between 6 and 7 degrees with surface temperatures in the low to mid 50's. Surface instability which looked pretty good last night at this time has backed off considerably tonight. So this is light rain and ony light rain here in Bowling Green. The secondary storm idea is still too far out for this model to pick it up yet. The NAM goes out to 84 hours, the secondary storm is about 102 hours away still.

------------------------
The GFS
------------------------
You got to love the GFS during this time of the year. It tries to bring about the end of the world with almost every storm system! This one is no exception. Here goes.......the GFS brings the rain in here much earlier than the NAM. It already prints out almost .20 of an inch by 1pm Saturday (hr54 12z run). Precip shuts off by Sunday morning. Total rainfall amounts according to the GFS will range from about .30 to .60 across the viewing area. This is much less than last night's thinking.
Here's where the fun begins. Last night's secondary storm idea is still there. However on the latest run the storm is much further south and east than yesterday. This puts us on the cold side of the storm and plays about a 1 to 3 inch snowfall in here late Sunday night into early Monday morning. The 850's go to -1 by Monday morning, that's cold enough to support the snow idea. Still not ready to jump all over this yet though because the GFS has been jumping all over the place the past few days.

---------------------------
The European
---------------------------
The European still backs the thinking of the GFS as far as positioning of the low is concerned. But as far as strength goes it's much weaker. The secondary storm develops by hr 96 which would be about 7am Monday morning. It's relatively weak at this point (1010mb) as it pulls off to the northeast. By hr 120 the storm is sitting off the Ocean City Maryland coast. So it will track to our south putting us on the cold sector of the storm. But at this point it has strengthened only slightly (1000mb). So not too sure whether or not it will be strong enough to pull the cold air down and change the rain over to snow Monday morning. But it is starting to come around to what the GFS is saying.

--------------------------
The UKMET
--------------------------
Honestly, I think this model is out to lunch a little bit. Likes the Saturday night into early Sunday morning rain thing here but has no clue what it wants to do with the secondary low. Hour 96 has the secondary low sitting all the way back into central Oklahoma. By hr 120 it places it over Atlanta Georgia. That's a due east track which I guess technically could happen. But here's why I don't like it. If you look at hr 120 you'll also notice that there's another low above it sitting just north of Lake Onario. This would set up a blocking situation. Not going to happen with a negative NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation). I think that this model is having a hard time picking up the change in the pattern right now. So I won't put to much emphasis in my forecast on this model right now.

Summary.................. I like how the European and the UKMET back the GFS's thinking with the secondary low. Although the position of it on the UKMET is too far west it still shows the pattern developing. Still a little too far out for the heavily relied upon NAM and MM5 to pick it up but with all of that energy coming off the southern branch of the jetstream I can't see how it wouldn't develop. So for right now let's assume that it does develop. Strength and track become the important factors then. A southern track puts us in the 1 to 3 inch snow band by Monday morning. A northern track brings in more rain here with possibly a changeover to a little light snow on the back end as it pulls away. Looks like it's going to be a close call. The good news is that the models have backed down a little bit on the rainfall totals. That's very good news at this point because as mentioned yesterday a lot of rivers and creeks and streams are very close to cresting right now.

Evening Update 1/25/06

2006-01-25T20:18:00.000-08:00

Forecast pretty much in line as to what I was thinking last night. A few small changes in amounts and timing.

Concerns......Short Term: NONE .............. Long Term: Small Creek and Stream / River Flooding

The National Weather Service has flood statements out for the following areas...............
1) The Green River @ Woodbury (Butler & Warren Co's)
2) The Green River @ Paradise
3) The Ohio River @ Newburgh, Shawneetown, Brookport Dam

All of these rivers at these current locations are currently at or close to flood stage with the majority of them still rising. They are forecasted to drop below flood stage by Friday morning. However, it won't take much rain with this weekend's storm to have these rivers crest above flood stage again.

Computer Models......
------------------------
The NAM
------------------------
The NAM continues to slow this storm system down. It starts to pick up some of that moisture by hour 75 (1am Sun). The interesting feature with the NAM that differs it from some of the other computer models is it shows a poorly organized system that hits us in waves rather than a storm that intensifies as it moves through the viewing area. About a half inch of rain is being printed out by hr84 (7am Sun). The extracted site also shows some pretty good surface instability as well hinting towards some thunderstorms with possible downpours.

------------------------
The GFS
------------------------
The GFS continues to clobber us with a good saoking rain around here on Saturday night. Rainfall totals according to this model could reach as high as 1.30 inches. Hours 78 and 84 (Saturday Night) both print out more than a half inch of liquid with another .20 at hour 72. The rivers around here will not be able to handle all of this moisture so flooding would be a concern. What's interesting with the GFS's latest run is the development of a secondary storm by Monday morning. The 850's (temps at 5,500ft.) really start to crash at this point. The colder air wants to try to rush in here by Monday afternoon and change that secondary area of rain over to a heavy wet snow. Hours 120 and 126 both print out over .20 of an inch of liquid. The 850's at this same time are below freezing with the 54oo line racing east across the viewing area. Right now this model says a soaker Saturday night followed by a little break in the action for Sunday. Then some more rain moves in here for Monday morning changing into wet snow by the evening. Snow accumulations of about 3 to 4 inches by Monday night.

------------------------------
The UKMET
------------------------------
The UKMET shows nothing even close to what the GFS or the NAM is thinking. It likes the idea of bringing an area of low pressure out of the southern plains states and slowly moving it northeast across the Ohio Valley. The low goes from 1008mb at hour 96 to an explosive 990mb low at hour 120. Rain, thunderstorms and winds look like a good bet with this one.

------------------------------
The European
------------------------------
The European likes the UKMET's idea. However by hour 120 the storm is even stronger!!! (986mb's) The only good news with that is the storm is close to Lake Erie at that point so rain and thunderstorms are a good bet but the heaviest rains would miss us to the east. Strong gusty winds look to be a concern by the beginning of next week once this storm system passes. VERY STRONG!!!

SUMMARY.............
Right now it's a tough call. Until the NAM and the MM5 really start to pick this storm up I'm just going to continue to mention showers for Saturday with a steady rain developing Saturday Night. I don't like the GFS's idea about a secondary storm developing right now with snow. I do like the European and the UKMET's idea of bombing this system out once it reaches the Great Lakes. Therefore, expect strong gusty winds and colder temperatures on the backend of this storm. Timing and amounts will continue to be the challenging part.

Evening Update 1/24/06

2006-01-24T20:49:00.000-08:00

Models continue to differ slightly with the timing of this next storm system and how much cold air gets pulled into the back end. The big question is how much rain will fall and could there be a little bit of snow before it all moves out. Remember there are quite a few creeks and rivers that are ready to crest there banks because of all of the rain we picked up this past weekend. The last thing that folks that live in these areas need is more rain. So rain totals are going to be something that we will have to keep a close eye on.

-------------------------------------
NAM (North Atlantic Mesoscale)
-------------------------------------
Continues to show a large area of high pressure from the west dominating our weather right through the first part of the weekend. The NAM rapid update only goes out 84 hours which would be right around 7am Saturday morning. At that point a very weak and unorganized area of low pressure is just in it's beginning stages across the southern central plains states. So expect sunny skies right through Friday.

------------------------------------
GFS (Global Forecast System)
------------------------------------
The GFS is much quicker and much heavier with this rain event. The model actually brings the rain into Southcentral Kentucky by 1pm Saturday afternoon. A large area of low pressure will pull out of Texas by Friday with moisture surging north out ahead of it from the Gulf Of Mexico. Hours 102 and 108 (Saturday Night) both print out over .30". Followed by .25 on hour 114. That's getting close to an inch total right there. So there looks to be a period of heavy rain Saturday Night. Showers look to linger into Monday morning with the low slowly pulling off to the northeast. The 850's (temps at 5,500 ft.) remain too warm to change any of this precipitation over to snow.

------------------------------------
The European
------------------------------------
The European shows a huge, massive 1036 millibar high dominating our weather through Friday. This will guarantee sunshine through that timeframe. Weak low begins to develop in the southern central plains states by 96hr out with strong southerly flow developing out ahead of it tapping into the Gulf Of Mexico. This looks to be similar thinking to that of the NAM. Moisture and warm air continue to surge out in front of this storm as it gets better organized and moves east. The low sits over the Missouri/Kentucky border by 120 hr out (Sunday Evening).

------------------------------------
The UKMET
------------------------------------
The UKMET is MUCH slower with this storm. The model goes out to 120 hours which would be right around 7pm Sunday evening. At that point both the GFS and the European had already had us picking up a good deal of rain. The UKMET is saying...oh no, and keeps us dry through that period with the rain only then finally knocking on our door step. If this holds true the weekend could turn out to be pretty nice here in Southcentral Kentucky.

So again timing and rain totals will be the big questions with this weekend's rain event. Another soaker around here could lead to some serious flooding problems across portions of the viewing area. Look for another update Wednesday evening.

Week #15 Football Picks

2005-12-22T20:19:00.000-08:00

Sowers (the guru) has caught fire yet again going 3 and 1 last week in his top four games. The garbage bowl did him in. That was his only blemish of the week and now his record shoots up to an impressive 8 and 4 against the spread since week #11. An injury to Kurt Warner early in the first half kept the guru from going perfect as Warner had already gone 10 for 10 passing for over 100 yards on his first two drives. The Cardinals would have probably destroyed the Texans if Warner stays healthy. But there's no point now in crying over spilled milk. So with that said lets get into week #15 shall we.

My first pick this week takes us to the shores of Lake Erie and Cleveland Ohio. The Pittsburgh Steelers are coming to town in a must win situation this week after the Chargres upset the Indianapolis Colts last week. This now puts the Chargers one game back in the playoff hunt even though the Steelers do hold the tiebreaker. They win this game and they lock up the fifth seed in the AFC and will likely play the Patriots first round in New England. Why would you want to do that you ask? You don't! But if they loose this week and somehow manage to loose next week to a "God Awful" Lions team they may not even go to the playoffs at all. So you take your wins as they come. The Steelers shouldn't have too many problems with the Browns this week who beat a bad Oakland team last week 9 to 6 in one of the most boring games I've ever seen. Running back Lamont Jordan of the Raiders ran all over the Browns defense. So guess what the Steelers are going to do? They'll give the Browns a good dose of Willie Parker and Jerome Bettis. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is begining to get healthy again and looked good last week against the Vikings. He'll look good again this week and so will the Steelers. Too much offense for the Browns.
PREDICTION: Steelers 31 .............. Browns 16

The second pick goes to the Chicago Bears in Lambeau Field. Quarterback Rex Grossman returns as the starter this week and should light up the Packers weak secondary. This becomes a very, very dangerous team now heading into the playoffs. With the stingiest defense in the NFL can you imagine what could happen if you add a little offense to this team. They could start blowing teams out rather easily, especially considering how weak some of the NFC is. But it's more than the defense, it's more than just the quarterback, it's a pretty solid running game as well. Running back Thomas Jones continues to make plays. He will open up the passing attack this week and that should allow Grossman to have a field day. Brett Favre is all but done and looked absolutely horrible last week against the Ravens. Now with running back Samkon Gado out for the rest of the season the only real weapon the Packers have is wide receiver Donald Driver. He won't do much against a top five pass defense that's for sure. Don't worry Brett, only two games left of the season from hell! It wasn't too long ago when traveling up to Green Bay was almost a guaranteed loss. My my my, where ever did the home field advantage go for the Packers.
PREDICTION: Bears 26 ............... Packers 13

The third pick this week takes us to Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City Missouri where the San Diego Chargers take on the Kansas City Chiefs. The first time these two teams met the Chargers offense exploded. Tight end Antonio Gates went nuts catching 10 passes for 145 yards and 3 touchdowns. Quarterback Drew Brees threw for 324 yards and 3 touchdowns and running back Ladainian Tomlinson rushed for 69 yards and caught three passes for 27 yards. He also threw a touchdown pass of his own. That's a lot of offensive! For some reason Brees and the Chargers always seem to do well against the Chiefs at Arrowhead. In a must win situation I think they'll do well again this week too. The line opened up as the Chiefs being a 1 point favorite. Give them two, give them three, it won't matter. Chargers won't let this one slip away like they did two weeks ago against the Dolphins. You'll see some offense by the Chiefs as well but it won't be enough.
PREDICTION: Chargers 35 ................... Chiefs 26

This weeks garbage bowl game goes to the Detroit Lions and the New Orleans Saints in the Alamodome. I have to tell you, there have been some lousy games this year but this one may just be the worst. Although, Arizona against the Eagles was a close second this week. Does anyone but my brother Gary and Eminem really even care about the Detroit Lions. I don't think so. They STINK!!!! Not too sure what management's thinking up there in the Motor City. Hopefully they're not going to be around next year to think about it again. A very talented core of wide receivers could make this a dangerous team if they ever get anyone to throw the ball to them. Jeff Garcia, gorgeous playmate girlfriend but horrible passer. They're other quarterback on this team who's so bad I even forgot his name can't throw the ball to save his life! But you know they may actually have a chance because they get to play the New Orleans Saints this week. Saints coach Jim Haslett went on to say earlier this week that if he was not given a four year contract extension and partial control of team operations next year he was leaving. Okay! And your record is what again this year? Oh that's right.......3 and 13. Annnnd how many wins do you have over the last three seasons. Oh that's right only 11. There are four teams in the NFL this year with that many wins alone!!! In the words of Stephen A. Smith ..........BYE!!!!! This should be a painful one to watch.
PREDICTION: Lions 2 ............... Saints 0 (okay fine, Lions 17 .........Saints 13)

Christmas Forecast Update

2005-12-22T15:15:00.000-08:00

Things are starting to look a little more interesting as we head into the hoiday weekend. The computer models continue to disagree with this weekend's forecast. The heavily relied on NAM (north atlantic mesoscale) continues to be the odd man out so to speak. This forecast model since Wednesday has consistently showed a weak disturbance swinging through the Great Lakes with a secondary storm system developing near Atlanta. Both of these lows will push off to the northeast. However, no phasing develops between the two and a moisture starved cold front pushes east through south central Kentucky on Christmas Eve night into early Christmas Day. About .03 of an inch is being printed out right now on Christmas morning. The colder air is in place at that time so it does suggest a few flurries around here during the morning hours. But for the most part this is a non event according to the NAM.
The GFS (global forecast system) and the European show a pretty potent storm system moving out of the northern plains. A very strong southwesterly flow develops out ahead of an approaching cold front on Christmas Eve. This will allow temperatures to soar up into the middle 50's. A few showers could develop Christmas Eve during the afternoon as well but the steady soaking rain looks like it wants to hold off until later that night. So if you have any holiday plans, parties etc. that your going to you may want to keep this in mind before you leave. It may not be raining when you head out but it most certainly will be when you make that trip back home so bring along the umbrella. Both models are also showing colder air trying to make it's way in here for Christmas Day with temperatures holding steady or slowly falling into the 30's. The big question is will there be any moisture leftover when this colder air moves in. If there is we may see a few flurries on the back end. If there isn't then we will just see a good soaker that night and a shower Christmas morning. Then skies will try to begin to clear out during the afternoon.
The UKMET is also showing this feature pulling out of the central plains into the southern Ohio Valley. A 996mb low situated near State College Pennsylvania Christmas night could bring those guys up to our north a white Christmas but not for us. But as is the case with the GFS and the European it does try to sneak some colder air in here on the back end of this storm. So drizzle and a few flurries can't be ruled out for Christmas morning.
So the question is do we go with the heavily relied on NAM and play this a non event here with maybe a shower or two on Christmas Day turning into a few flurries. Or, do we go with the numbers and follow the UKMET, GFS and the European and play a soaker for Christmas Eve night. With maybe a shower or two Christmas Day during the early morning hours. I like the soaker. I think that the NAM right now is really underestimating this disturbance diving south out of the northern plains. Will we see rain for Christmas. Yes, but probably only a few showers early then basically clouds trying to break for some late sunshine. Do we see any snow? No, I don't think that there will be any moisture leftover by the time that colder air makes it's way in here.
I'll update tomorrow afternoon.

Could We See A White Christmas?

2005-12-20T18:46:00.000-08:00

No! Well at least not the kind of white Christmas that your probably hoping for. To be considered a white Christmas there must be at least a half inch of snow on the ground. That's looking highly unlikely at this point. Although a wet Christmas is certainly not out of the question. The long range computer models that we look at are the European, the NOGAPS, the GFS and the JMA. All of which are swinging a cold front through south central Kentucky during the day on Saturday bringing us the chance of showers. It's at this point though where the models begin to differ.
So first lets focus on the European which is a very accurate model at 72 hours out. The European model shows a very powerful area of low pressure moving through the Great Lakes by this weekend. The latest run showed a 990mb low which is very strong for this time of the year coming out of Canada. It's trailing cold front punches through here during the day Saturday and begins to usher in the colder air by Saturday Night. However, by the time that colder air moves in most of the moisture should have already have moved out. So with that said we will go with a cloudy, mild and breezy Christmas Eve with showers developing. That looks to be a pretty safe bet according to this model.
The GFS (Global Forecast System) tells a completely different story here. This model also swings a cold front through the area during the day on Saturday bringing us some showers. But it also shows an upper level trough that begins to go negatively tilted. What this does is it allows the colder air to move into south central Kentucky faster than it normally would with the front and it also rapidly intensifies a secondary area of low pressure just to our south near the Tennessee/Alabama border. Now it's the development and track of this secondary storm that will determine whether or not we may get a few snow showers in here on Christmas Day. If the storm develops close enough to Bowling green it may kick back some moisture. With the colder air in place at that time the moisture could fall as snow. However, keep in mind that temperatures two days before hand will be in the low to mid 50's so it is very doubtful that any of this would stick to the ground. Temperatures during the day on Christmas Day would also be well above freezing so this eliminates any chance of a white Christmas. However, this model doesn't completely rule out the chance of at least seeing a few flakes around here for your Santa Claus day. Then of course after Christmas is over with the real cold air moves in to start your work week next week. But it is short lived.
The NOGAPS pretty much agrees with the GFS until it comes time to position that secondary storm. According to this model the low develops very far to the south in through central Georgia. This secondary storm never gets picked up with the upper level trough because the trough isn't digging as much, as is the case with the GFS. Therefore, instead of riding up the eastern seaboard this secondary low moves off the South Carolina coast and out to sea. What that means for us is showers developing with the approaching cold front during the day on Christmas Eve. Some of those showers could linger into the early morning hours Christmas Day but then things begin to dry out later on in the afternoon as the colder air moves in.
The heavily relied on NAM (North Atlantic Mesoscale) is just now beginning to get into range on this event. At least for the very beginning of it. It shows a strong but moisture starved cold front approaching from the west. With that said there are a few things that are concerning me with this latest run. Mostly the fact that there isn't a closed area of low pressure to the north into the Great Lakes. The 500mb heights do show an intense trough developing with good upward motion. This coupled with the open low to the north leads me to believe that this will lead to the development of that secondary low to the south along this front. Unfortunately this model only goes out 84 hours and the event is still about 96 to 104 hours away. So as I mentioned earlier only the very beginning of this event is actually being shown on the NAM right now. But the trough is further west than what the GFS suggests. If this is the case Christmas Day could be rather miserable around here with on and off showers and perhaps a period of steady rain as this secondary storm round out the trough and pushes off to the northeast.
So that's what it's looking like right now. There really isn't anything to lead me to believe that we will see any snow for Christmas. Oh well, maybe we'll see some before this winter's over.

Snow, Sleet and Freezing Rain

2005-12-12T12:17:00.000-08:00

Here's a question that I often get around this time of the year. What's the difference between snow, sleet and freezing rain? This question may seem a little complicated at first, especially when it's 25 degrees outside and your trying to figure out why it's raining and not snowing. But actually, the process is quite simple.

SNOW...............Let's assume that the upper levels of the atmosphere are below 32 degrees. If these levels are above freezing to begin with then forget about it, it won't snow. As a snowflake begins to travel to the surface it encounters different levels of the atmosphere. As long as the temperatures at these different levels remain below freezing this snowflake will remain a snowflake and nothing else. The tricky part comes in when temperatures somewhere from 850mb (5,500ft.) to the surface begin to rise above the freezing mark. That's when this snowflake may begin to take on a different form. A snowflake CAN survive it's journey to the surface through above freezing air that is 600 meters deep or less. Anything greater than 600 meters and the snowflake will melt. This is the reason why you'll notice that sometimes it snows when the temperature outside is close to 40 degrees. This is also the same reason why temperatures could be in the 20's and it's raining instead of snowing. So the process for snow is a snowflake that remains frozen as it travels through mostly below freezing temperatures on it's journey to the surface.

SLEET.................Let's assume all of the parameters that I mentioned above with snow are the same. It's below freezing in the upper levels of the atmosphere. However, this time around there is a layer in the atmosphere that is above freezing which is located somewhere between 850mb (5,500ft.) and 900mb (3,000ft.) and is deeper than 300 meters. As this snowflake travels through this layer of the atmosphere it will then melt into a rain drop becasue this layer of above freezing temperatures is just too deep. As this rain drop continues to fall it then encounters another colder layer of the atmosphere that is once again below freezing. This raindrop then refreezes into an ice pellet and falls to the surface. This process is known as sleet. So it starts as a snowflake, melts into a raindrop, then refreezes into an ice pellet.

FREEZING RAIN.............This one's by far the most treacherous of them all. Freezing rain is extremely difficult to travel on because it's a process where ice develops on everything. Once again for this example suppose the parameters are the same as I mentioned with snow. The upper levels of the atmosphere are below the freezing mark. As is the case with sleet a falling snowflake will then encounter a deep layer of above freezing temperatures close to the surface. The difference is that this time around there isn't another layer of below freezing air. So once this snowflake melts into a raindrop it remains a raindrop until it hits the surface. If the surface is below freezing (32 degrees or colder) the liquid then freezes on contact and forms a thin layer of ice on the ground. Freezing rain is very difficult to see sometimes because of it's transparency. Often times freezing rain takes on the color of the surface that it has come into contact with. It is this reason why there are often so many accidents with ice because people just can't see it, as well as it being very slippery. So the process for freezing rain is a snowflake that melts into a raindrop that freezes on contact with the surface.

Week #13 Football Picks

2005-12-09T16:02:00.000-08:00

The guru didn't do too bad last week going 3 and 1 with his top four. I picked Cincinnati to upset Pittsburgh in Pittsburgh....check. I picked the Giants to hold off Dallas.....check. I picked Arizona to knock off San Francisco in San Fran.....check. And finally I picked Denver to beat Kansas City....oops, missed that one. So all in all not too bad.
I see a lot of blow outs this week. It shows in the lines from Las Vegas too. There are five double digit favorites this week. They include Cincinnati, Denver, San Diego, Seattle and Atlanta. Now that Brian Westbrook is out the New York Giants are a nine and a half point favorite over my hopeless Philadelphia Eagles too. Sorry to say, I actually think the Giants are going to destroy Philadelphia this week, but we won't play that one because I still have to cheer for the Eagles when I'm at the bar this Sunday. Okay here is this weeks plays.
I love the San Diego Chargers this week. As I mentioned last week, Drew Brees is just straight nasty at home. In his last four starts at Qualcome Stadium Drew Brees has thrown 14 touchdowns against only 3 interceptions. One of his favorite targets is tight end Antonio Gates who leads all NFL tight ends in receptions with 63. He also leads all NFL tight ends with 874 yards and eight touchdowns. This week shouldn't be any different. Look for Brees to pick apart the Dolphins secondary. And with a horrible pass rush, he should have plenty of time to find Gates for a couple of scores. The only chance Miami even has of keeping this game close is wide receiver Chris Chambers who has become a stud fantasy wideout. In my South Jeresy fantasy football league Chris Chambers was taken in the seventh round by my twin brother Gary Sowers. What a pick up for him! He's averaging almost 20 points. I passed on him twice...oh well. San Diego's at home, there in a must win situation and Drew Brees is red hot. It all spells disaster for Miami.
PREDICTION: San Diego 34 Miami 13

My second pick this week is the undefeated Indianapolis Colts (12-0). Peyton Manning.....that's all I have to say. Now that the Indianapolis offense is back on track the big question is can anyone stop this man? Well actually, the Jaguars almost did the last time these two teams met September 18th. Indianapolis pulled out a 10 to 3 defensive victory in Indy in week #2. Peyton Manning completed 13 of 28 passes for a miserable 122 yards and no touchdowns. Do you really think that's going to happen again this time around in the rematch? Yeah right! Peyton Manning may actually double those numbers in the first half alone this time around. Jacksonville is minus quarterback Byron Leftwhich and running back Fred Taylor may play but is still banged up. Not to mention the fact that Jacksonville only scored three points on a much improved Colts defense last time around. Can't win if you can't score! Bottom line....Jacksonville is fighting for a playoff spot true but they won't be able to run the ball, they won't be able to pass the ball, and they sure won't be able to stop Peyton Manning either.
Blow out city baby!
PREDICTION: Indianapolis 31 Jacksonville 13

My third pick is a team that no one expected to be this good before the season started. The fire power of the Cincinnati Bengals will continue to gun down there opponents in week #13. That means a rough day for Cleveland quarterback Trent Dilfer. Cincinnati leads the league in take aways at +24 (I believe it's +24). If it's not that high it's awful close. That's almost a guarantee that Cleveland will turn the ball over at least once this week, maybe even twice. That in itself would be all the Bengals need. But they'll get more. They'll get much more! They'll get Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadah more. Both of which will score touchdowns this week. Expect running back Rudi Johnson to get in on the act as well. It's in Cleveland but does that even matter!? Not too menton Clevland's most promising up and coming young star wide receiver Braylon Edwards is out for the rest of the season with a broken leg. Outside of the Indianapolis Colts this is the most explosive offense in the NFL. They'll continue to put up big numbers this week too. I'll stamp it with another... Blow Out City Baby!
PREDICTION Cincinnati 34 Cleveland 17

Last but not least is this weeks trash bowl. This week the Tennessee Titans and the Houston Texans take home that honor when they square off at one o'clock in Tennessee. The only reason anyone would even want to watch this game is if they had some of the players from these teams in there fantasy football lineup. Okay, lets look at the game this way. Houston can't run the ball, they don't score touchdowns and they can't stop the pass. Actually, they can't stop the run either. Tennessee on the other hand can run the ball if Chris Brown is healthy. They do score points but quarterback Steve McNair is a little banged up and the Titans constantly turn the ball over. Lately, Texans quarterback David Carr has been effective in the pocket. Mostly hitting steadily improving wide receiver Andre Johnson who went nuts two weeks ago with 12 catches for 154 yards and a touchdown. Tuesday's line looked a little funny to me when it opened up as Tennessee being a six and a half point favorite at home. Against Houston in Tennessee it should be 10 points. Houston stinks! So since the line looks funny to me, I'll go the other way. Take Houston in this one. They may not win but they'll cover.
PREDICTION Who Cares! (Tennessee 24 Houston 20)

Good Luck in week #13!

Bowling Green's First Snow Of The Season

2005-12-06T20:47:00.000-08:00

As of ten o'clock Tuesday evening the forecast seems to be pretty much inline with earlier thinking. There are a few minor changes that we'll have to discuss including a little warmer air now starting to show on the NAM. A split flow in the jetstream will allow very cold air from the north to interact with a lot of moisture coming out of the Gulf Of Mexico. The NAM is showing a double barrell area of low pressure. The first one heading east, coming out of the southern plains states. The second one pulling north out of the Florida Panhandle. It will be the track and the strength of the plains states low that will determine whether or not we will see a mixed bag to start or an all snow event here in Bowling Green. Precipitation should begin sometime during the late morning hours towards midday. The 00z run on the NAM Tuesday night is printing out .12 of liquid at 42hr (1pm Thursday). A vertical stack of the atmosphere at this same time does show above freezing temperatures from 800mb (temp 1.0 Cel.) to 1000 mb (0.2 Cel.) What this is telling me is that there will be a very shallow layer of above freezing air from 8,000 to 5,000 ft. in the atmosphere. Then below freezing temperatures again near the surface. Not quite sure right now if this layer of above freezing air is deep enough to melt the snow and change it into freezing rain. However, it will be a very close call. Considering that the NAM already has a warm bias to begin with, I would say that the temps will be slightly cooler than what the latest print out is. Therefore, the precipitation will should start as a snow/sleet/freezing rain mix. Temperatures continue to fall as we head into the evening hours on Thursday so any mix that does occur will quickly change to all snow. The evening commute is of particular concern right now because the snow will start to stick to the roadways. The 00z run 48 hrs out on the NAM is printing out about .42 of an inch of liquid. This timeframe (3:00pm - 7:00pm Thursday) is when the precipitation will be at it's heaviest. Then it will begin to taper off as we head towards midnight.
The GFS remains much colder than the NAM and is supporting an all snow event here in Bowling Green all the way through. The 850 temps on the 12z run Tuesday are anywhere from -1.0 to -2.0 degrees celcius for hours 54 (1:00pm Thurs) to 60 (7:00pm Thurs). This means that the layer of cold air is below freezing all the way through so an all snow event would be likely. The 12z Tuesday run is printing out .64 inches of liquid. The snow/liquid ratio on average is 10 to 1. This means for every inch of liquid is equivalent to 10 inches of snow. So the GFS is suggesting about six inches of wet snow here by 1:00am Friday morning. What's interesting is the 700mb vv (vertical velocity). During the height of the storm it's showing vv's in the low 20's which is a very good lift for this time of the year. When we had that tornado outbreak three weeks ago the 700mb vv's were only at 12 with the cold front. So you can see that we will have very good lifting which could actually enhance the falling snow. That, coupled with close to freezing temperatures will produce those big wet flakes that look pretty when there falling but they make for treacherous driving conditions because they cover everything.
My call right now will be a mixed bag of sleet and freezing rain to start for Bowling Green that will change over to all snow during the afternoon hours. South and east of Bowling Green as you head into Cumberland and Monroe counties in Kentucky and Clay county in Tennessee expect more in the way of freezing rain and rain. This will keep snow totals in these areas lower than in Bowling Green where we can expect a good 2 to 3 inches to fall with isolated heavier amounts particularly up to the north. The start time should be somewhere during the late morning early afternon hours ending around midninght or 1:00 am. Then clearing will take place overnight and with the colder air being advected in and a snowpack on the ground temperatures will tumble big time, down into the low teens. High pressure will settle in during the day on Friday and temperatures will not get above freezing. So make sure to get that rock salt and sand down because once the snow and ice feeze it won't be until Saturday afternoon when temperatures get back above the freezing mark. Look for another update tomorrow evening.

Coastal storm for the Mid Atlantic?

2005-12-04T18:03:00.000-08:00

The weather's pretty much simple here. A large 1048 millibar high pressure system coming down from Canada will pretty much keep temperatures in the 30's all week long in Bowling Green. The core of this cold air looks like it wants to get in here on Wednesday or Thursday with possible highs only in the low to mid 30's. The NAM extracted data is showing a high on Wednesday of only 34 degrees. And even though we'll see a good amount of sunshine we'll continue to be advecting in colder air from the upper midwest. The 850's are running between -7 and -9 degrees on the 12z NAM run for the 78hr (1:00pm WED) timeframe. That's actually cold enough to support temperatures in the upper 20's, however, with the sunshine and slight modification due to friction we'll say low to mid 30's. As far as precipitation goes, doesn't look like we'll see much of anything this week. A disturbance will pass us by to the south on Wednesday but should stay far enough away that we'll just see some clouds here.
Now on to the main event! We're moving into the time of year where folks in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic really begin to focus more on the weather because of storms called Nor'easters. These storms can bring an entire city to a screeching halt. Sometimes crippling amounts of snow can fall in a short period of time which is usually followed by extremely cold arctic air. I don't see a crippling snowstorm this time around but I do see enough of a storm to give the snow plows there fist action of the season in the Mid Atlantic states. For this forecast I will use the city of "Brotherly Love", Philadelphia as my focal point. The big question over the last several days has been whether or not the NAM would come around to what the GFS was doing. These are two of the main forecast models that we use. The GFS last week wanted to bring the storm up the eastern seaboard but at the same time the NAM was pushing it out to sea. However, the Canadian model backed the GFS and wanted to also bring this storm up the coast as well. So a two scenario situation was pretty much how this forecast should have been handled on Thursday Night. By Friday Night the 00z run on the GFS backed off a little bit and now pushed the storm off the coast. But what was interesting was the NAM all of the sudden was now starting to bring the storm up the coast as the GFS previously did. So you can start to see the trend here. Now it's Sunday evening and the NAM and the GFS are still slightly different with there development and tracks of the storm. The models are printing out different amounts of moisture as well. It's the NAM that is printing out about six tenths of an inch of liquid now for the city of Philadelphia, not the GFS. As a matter of fact the GFS now pushes the storm so far off the coast that only one tenth of an inch is being forecasted. But back to the print out on the NAM. With a snow ratio on average of 10 to 1 and six tenths of an inch being predicted, the NAM is suggesting about six inches of snow to fall for the city of Philadelphia by Tuesday. However, that ratio increases when the temperatures fall below 32 degrees. When temperatures start to reach the upper 20's that ratio becomes closer to 12 to 1. Temperatures in the low 20's, the ratio becomes 15 to 1. Temperatures in the mid teens, 20 to 1. The latest run on the NAM is showing temperatures in the upper 20's. So when all is said and done about 8 inches of snow would be possible for Philadelphia going by the NAM. I DON'T BY IT THOUGH!!!! I like the cold air part but I think some of the moisture is overdone on the NAM. So lets compensate for the fact that the GFS is so much further south and take into consideration the ratio and go with a 4 to 5 inch snow in the city of Philadelphia down to Baltimore. Maybe slightly higher totals as you head closer to the coast and less as you head north and west of the cities. Again, the GFS has kind of lost this storm on the 12z and 00z runs on Sunday and isn't printing out much moisture at all now for Philadelphia. So we'll continue to wait and see. One things for certain though, if it does snow in Philadelphia tomorrow night the Monday Night Football game between Seattle and Philadelphia will be a fun one to watch. Once this storm comes and goes the European model is showing a large area of high pressure in the upper midwest pushing southeast. Because it's been so cold for a while already in the northeast this air will modify, but only slightly. Temperatures Wednesday morning could be as low as the mid teens thanks to the possibility of snow pact in the major cities from D.C. to Philadelphia. High temperatures look like they will only get up into the low to mid 30's Wednesday afternoon. A good friend of mine back home, Rob Guariano, is a meteorologist at the fox 29 station in Philadelphia. He's calling Tuesday's storm the "Trifecta". He came up with the name because if it does snow, this will be the third time in the last five years that the city of Philadelphia has seen a 4 to 8 inch snowstorm on the 5th of December. We'll just have to continue to wait and see if all of this pans out.

Put a little N.O. in your diet!

2005-12-03T14:10:00.000-08:00

Nitric Oxide is probably one of the most powerful and still yet relatively undiscovered supplements on the market today. NO (Nitric Oxide) increases muscle strength and dilates the blood vessels which helps deliver more blood to the muscles. Nitric Oxide also brings more water to your muscles and gives you that muscle pump that makes you look like your ripping through your shirt. A good friend of mine (Bobby Velasquez) had told me about this a while ago and I wish that I had started taking it back then. Bobby's a Vin Diesel look alike from Sea Side Heights New Jersey who knows just about everything there is to know in the bodybuilding world. So when he suggests something to me I listen. It's been about two months now that I have added N.O. to my diet and honestly the pumps that I get in the gym right now are crazy. I've been getting these sudden explosive power surges during certain power movements like the bench press or bent-over rows which has enabled me to push through stick points. That's allowed me to at least knock out one or two more reps during that movement. Muscle growth and vasculity is the main difference that I've seen so far. I'm starting to get that freaky shoulder pad look now in my shoulders and deep cuts in my abs that I haven't seen since I was in high school. I have cleaned up my diet as well and actually have a pretty strict way of eating again. I still go to the bar and order that captain and coke or slip up once in a while and eat that chicken parm dinner. But I virtually eat no sugar now and I stay away from excess carbs. The combination of all of this has really started to show now and I'm very pleased with my results so far.
Another supplement that has a good N.O. effect is L-arginine. I actually take 5 grams twice a day with an antioxiidant called Pycnogenol. L-arginine is usually taken for it's nitric oxide (N.O.) boosting effects. It should be taken with Pycnogenol because Pycnogenol boosts arginine's conversion to N.O. So combined, the two become a pretty powerful supplement. I read about this in the December edition of Muscle and Fitness. There's a great article called Super Synergy that talks about how even the best supplements can be made even better with a sidekick. Everything from Glutamine to Whey Protein to Creatine is in this article along with foods to avoid.

Football Forecast Week #12

2005-11-29T17:04:00.000-08:00

The weatherman's not only the mad scientist when it comes to forecasting the weather, he's a guru in forecasting football as well. So here are a few of my picks for this upcoming Sunday. This week features some key matchups in the playoff races including a huge rematch between Pittsburgh and Cincinnati. The last time these two teams met Pittsburgh prooved to be too much as Ben Roethisberger threw for two touchdowns and speedy Willie Parker ran for another in a 27-13 win. The Pittsburgh secondary pretty much contained the high powered Cincinnati offense for most of the game. Superstar wideout Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh both posted big receiving numbers but they were kept out of the endzone, and that prooved to be the difference. I like the Bengals this time around to upset Pittsburgh in Heinz Field. All you fantasy owners remember this game...Chad Johnson goes off this week!
Prediction: Cincinnati 24 Pittsburgh 20

Another huge game takes place in the Meadowlands in East Rutherford New Jersey. This game may pretty much determine who wins the NFC East. The first time these two teams met Dallas marched down the field in overtime and kicked the winning field goal in a defensive 16-13 win. However,this game wasn't as close as it looked. Dallas fumbled the ball twice and Drew Bledsoe threw an interception, all in the first half alone and Dallas still managed to hold on to a 7-6 halftime lead. The second half didn't proove to be much better for Dallas as Bledsoe fumbled again and had a touchdown pass nullified on a holding penalty. Dallas continued to shoot themselves in the foot. Finally, Eli Manning took advantage of the Cowboy mistakes and found Jeremy Shockey in the end zone on a 24 yard touchdown pass to tie the game. But in overtime Bledsoe marched the Cowboys 49 yards down the field and Cortez kicked the game winning field goal. Now here's my problem with this game. Dallas made just about every mistake possible and still pulled out the victory. However, this time they're in the Meadowlands and Eli Manning is nasty at home. Coming off of a heart breaking loss to Seattle last week will be all the Giants need in this one. But could there be a lack of confidence with there kicker? I don't think so! Fantasy studs for this game.......Keyshawn Johnson and Jeremy Shockey.
Prediction: N.Y. Giants 27 Dallas 21

Back to the AFC we go where Denver faces a very dangerous Kansas City team. The Chiefs are hot right now as Larry Johnson continues to put up huge fantasy numbers. But it's not just Johnson that's been hot lately, it's tightend Tony Gonzalez and quarterback Trent Green as well. The big question is can they produce against a very good Broncos defense. The answer....Yes! However, Denver will match the Chiefs blow for blow early as Kansas City continues to struggle with there defense. In the end, the Broncos will proove to once again be too much and pull away. Denver manhandled Kansas City the first time around as Jake Plummer finished with a 116 quarterback rating and the Broncos rushed for 221 yards. Kansas City only rushed for 74. If the Broncos are able to shut down Larry Johnson again the outcome will be the same as last time. I don't care if this games in Kansas City or not, Denver wins. They're just too strong this year. It'll be a lot closer this time around though.
Prediction: Denver 33 Kansas City 23

Now for the who cares matchup of the week! That would be the Arizona Cardinals traveling to San Francisco. The first time these two teams met they were in Mexico where Arizona crushed the 49ers 31 to 14. Josh McCown threw for a career high 385 yards against a horrible 49ers secondary. Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald, who could be the most dangerous wideout combination in football today each scored a touchdown and each recorded more than 100 yards receiving. Will they do it this time around? Yes! Kurt Warner is the starter and is red hot right now and the high powered passing attack of Arizona will put up plenty of points. The difference is... this time he 49ers have Ken Dorsey. Even though Dorsey is average at best he's still good enough to find Brandon Lloyd a couple of times and attack the Cardinals secondary. However, mistakes will cost the 49ers again. Cardinals will prevail in San Francisco. Fantasy studs in this one....Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald. Brandon Lloyd should have a good game as well.
Prediction: Cardinals 31 49ers 23